Boy. What a roller coaster we’re on. I actually think that the editors hate the way the twists have gone with the amount of ‘this twist sucks’ being said during each episode, but especially the one from episode 9 used on Christian. Honestly, this is one of my least favorite disadvantages. I think about Tony’s disadvantage in S40 and how fun it was, but this just felt like the way to bury someone, and unfortunately, it landed on the person I thought was going to win it all. Then in episode 10 we have another twist which just feels a bit weird - and could have very well sent home another fan favorite had it turned out the other way. My rankings have changed - dramatically. It’s had to adapt, so join me in this ride as I try to scrape together logic to somehow get back my footing. Take a look below!

EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

First, our fallen heroes.

Christian.

I’M IN DENIAL. Wow, I may actually be just extremely incorrect this season with my reads. I came into this week feeling relatively confident, but unfortunately that confidence is super shaken. Christian felt like at worst a final 7 boot as a major figure this season… but 11th place? Really? I guess he was just the main character of the first half of the season. It feels like his edit, as someone said to me recently, felt more like an apology. I can’t imagine producers/editors are super happy with this season’s trajectory, and the likes of Colby, Genevieve, and now Christian getting these bigger edits with more prominence only to ALL be screwed by twists feels like a callout to this season. Now, would Christian have gone without the twist? Maybe, hard to say, but this certainly locked it in and solidified this as one of my least favorite twists in a season full of somewhat unfortunate twists.

Stephanie.

Honestly, not too surprised? Like a relatively under the radar edit that had spikes when it was circumstantially relevant. She had a somewhat okay storyline, and I think found some redemption after having a really rough last airing. She’s been on a few reality shows (and a significant portion of those with Cirie), and each time has lost dramatically to Cirie. It’s almost become humorous seeing that happen again and again. A fine exit, and someone I did not have in high hopes to win this season.

So, what does this mean for edgic? I’m a bit lost, I can’t lie. It feels like all of my heavy hitters took major hits, so let’s reevaluate. Here’s my new… maybe improved (?) winner ranking list. (Last week, I did make a chance of winning list for each player, which was unpublished because of a busier week, as such, I’ll post last week’s winning chances and this weeks to show my own thoughts on their trajectory.)

Still, No

.01% Chance of Winning

Tiffany - I love Tiffany, and I’m so glad her edit has gotten some serious redemption. That being said, I think most people are pretty certain she isn’t winning. When Christian goes, we actually see her try to push it onto Emily, and it actually felt like this could be the start of a serious underdog arc, but it is quickly squashed and any hope for some agency from her is removed. I have a really solid feeling this type of storyline will continue until she’s cut, probably during whichever of the next episode or two is going to be a double, as one of the more quietly edited players. There’s not too much more to add, so her chances of winning stay love. Chance of winning after Episode 9: .01% (-.9% from last episode) | after Episode 10: .01% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Joe - Our other blubbering contestant, Joe has provided some great narration and has been a key figure in this heroic alliance, but his strategy and personality have certainly not been shown in the best light. The playing purely hero-esque has been shown as bad and boring, and Joe is in the center of it. Add on his hate of Rick, who has pretty much cemented himself as the underdog favorite, has made him basically just the guy most people don’t want to see win. I see longevity in the edit, maybe he is our losing finalist who is a hero (I know, I’ve said this about Colby and Stephanie and look how that turned out), but I feel like he is sneaking very quickly into that spot, and I don’t think he’s going to have the strategic mind to make a move great enough to earn the jury votes to win. Chance of winning after Episode 9: .01% (+/- 0% from last episode) | after Episode 10: .01% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Still, Probably Not But ???

.98 to 2.5% Chance of Winning

Emily - Emily has been so much fun to watch this season, and I’m so glad her chaotic streak has continued. She leaks so much, she schemes, and she provides some awesome entertainment. That all being said, these past two episodes have felt still like she is a bit of a secondary character in the story. She is shown actually making good reads - in episode 9 she accurately predicts she is going to get some heat, but aside from that I feel like her story would feel more rich and focused if we saw her relationship building a bit more. Currently, it feels like we only know a part of Emily’s story, and for a winner, it should’ve been more developed by now. We’re getting lower in numbers, so Emily will see a slight boost in winning chances, but I think there are much more clear standout performers. Chance of winning after Episode 9: .9% (+.4% from last episode) | after Episode 10: .98% (+.08% from last episode)

Jonathan - Jonathan has been one of the most perplexing edits to nail down, especially because he gets these big moments, big strategy plays, but he also has this slightly villainous undertone which is permeating his storyline. I have the feeling he is absolutely going to be a big dragon, going home somewhere between 7th to 5th. He has certainly been really fun to watch, he is chaotic but has actually proven to not be horrible at strategy. His season theme, about appearing one way to the others, has proven to be working as others are getting thrown under the bus (like Stephanie) because Jonathan is seen as less of a meathead. He’s been developing strong relationships, but you can’t help but notice how much he is wrong and not on the correct side of votes (or is portrayed going against the heroes of this story like Christian and Rick). All of these point to a big player who goes out in a big move to me. Chance of winning after Episode 9: 5% (+2% from last episode) | after Episode 10: 2.5% (-2.5% from last episode)

With This Edit, Who Knows

3 to 5% Chance of Winning

Ozzy - I feel like Ozzy is very high on a lot of rankings, but there is a few things in his edit I can’t get over. He is constantly shown as just a less strong version of Cirie, who is constantly saving him. He never saves himself, and he doesn’t say any comments on how he built that relationship which is saving him, he just says he is being saved. I also don’t like how they excluded a scene from the auction where he gives up cupcakes to the others and is awarded with a cheesecake for his generosity. It’s such a minor thing, but I feel like it’s such an easy ball to throw at him to prove he’s a good person the audience can root for even more. I feel like he has all the hallmarks for a winner edit, but I also just can’t help but see all of the giant holes in it as well. To me, he screams either a final tribal loser or a relatively late merge boot who goes out as a big player and icon of the show as a whole. Chance of winning after Episode 9: 3% (+2% from last episode) | after Episode 10: 3% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Aubry - If you had told me Aubry would be top 4 episode 1 I would never believe you, but here we are. Aubry has such a weird storyline going on, but it has some good peaks. She’s gotten a lot of great strategic and social content, with her bonding with Jonathan, talking about her past loss to Michelle, and feeling like a complex character over the past couple episodes. We see a storyline forming, and we actually see some character out of her. When she eats the bugs, it feels goofy and human and it made me warm up to her even more. That being said, there’s holes in the edit. The big one still being her Genevieve storyline. It was resolved so unceremoniously where it felt like Rick/Christian had more time to discuss it than Aubry did. I feel like Aubry may actually have some time in the game still, but I’m still unsure if this is a winning storyline or more of a growth/redemption arc. Chance of winning after Episode 9: 3% (+2.5% from last episode) | after Episode 10: 5% (+2% from last episode)

Top Players (Until next episode, probs)

18.5 to 45% Chance of Winning

Cirie - I am ecstatic that Cirie is being shown as truly dominant. I was worried going into merge that her edit would fizzle, but Survivor, in all that it is messing up, is not messing up her edit. I still am unsure where Cirie is winner wise, but she is being shown in a very dominant light to be sure. I just worry that this is a bit too high strung and grand for her having such an unsteady premerge, where I wonder if Cirie is going to be going home soon in a big show, and from the ashes Rizo will become the big figure ready to learn from what Cirie has taught him. I really enjoy the dynamic and personality she has shown, and she has proven herself to be quite a legend of the show… and hey if she wins I’d be thrilled. Chance of winning after Episode 9: 13% (+10% from last episode) | after Episode 10: 18.5% (+5.5% from last episode)

Rick - Rick may in part be this high because I can’t stand to leave him off my winner contenders. As the sole remaining top 4 contender from episode 1, I have a lot of hope still riding on him. He is just… such a massive character. I have trouble quite seeing how he makes the end with such a ginormous threat level, but if there is a way, I actually see this being the edit he would receive. He’s chaotic and messy, but he goes for it and embraces it. I feel like normally those who go against their theme of the season go home quickly after, and Rick has lasted longer than all those who have broken their trend. Is there hope? Strangely yes? Like, I may be actually deluding myself into this ranking, but it would surely be an entertaining win. Chance of winning after Episode 9: 15% (-21% from last episode) | after Episode 10: 25% (+10% from last episode)

Rizo - I must say I have been warming up on Rizo a lot. He has had two quieter episodes, but I actually don’t think it’s bad if this is leading up to like a Cirie boot and then Rizo taking control. In episode 9, he is quiet until the very end when he says that his game hedges on Christian going, and despite all of what everyone else says with going Emily, it ends up on Christian going, proving Rizo right. This last episode was again a bit quieter for him, but I don’t think it needed to be big. We’re consistently given positive feedback and made him look more personable. I think he’s being set up, if at worst a deep run, at best a winning game. He has a clear storyline, he has great relationships set up, and he is clearly an audience favorite. Is Rizo our winner??? Chance of winning after Episode 9: 60% (+44% from last episode) | after Episode 10: 45% (-15% from last episode)

Apologies for missing last week, BUT I’m so excited for these last 3 episodes! If you have any comments or like my content, feel free to subscribe! Have a lovely day!

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EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

As per our history, let’s revisit our two fallen friends and discuss their trajectories.

First, our Dragon Slayer, Coach himself. Unfortunately, this was entirely predictable. In the last blog post, we said in our discussion, “Remember how I said that people who go against their sound strategy will usually meet their demise shortly after? Looks at Coach.” The great news is, this has been a very consistent running theme now. Mike, Q, (kindaaa Genevieve), and now Coach all had this, where they said they were going to act one way, did the opposite, and went home within like 1-2 episodes. Moving forward, we should absolutely think it is significant in a negative way if someone goes against the strategy they originally discussed at the start of the season. I’m happy to say we got this prediction right… or should I say sad? Coach is such an enigma of a human being, and I’m so glad if this is the last time we see him on Survivor (which I kind of assume it is), that he goes out in this blaze of glory. He absolutely lived up the hype, and I’m glad we saw his descent into craziness.

Chrissy, on the other hand, was a person that was just consistently on the bottom of my rankings through the whole season. I had predicted across multiple episodes that she was most likely someone that would go home in a double elimination while more of a spotlight is put on the other player. And like… that is exactly what happened, to the T, so I’m pretty thrilled I got that prediction right. That being sad, I am a bit disappointed in Chrissy’s edit, it definitely feels a bit minimal. We did get to see some fun stuff, I mean her move on Kamilla was so fun to watch, and I love seeing that personality come out of her, but I think her trajectory was unfortunately predictable since the start of the season. Thanks for being on this season Chrissy!!

AND WITH THAT, ONTO OUR WINNER CHANCES!

It’d Take A Miracle

.01 to .1% Chance to Win

Joe - Joe continues to stay on the bottom. He gets some content (wahoo!), but it feels relatively superficial where Joe wants to stick to the loyalty game (which has been said multiple times already that it won’t win you the season), but then I believe votes out his allies in Chrissy/Coach. It feels very convoluted and really does not make sense with his own storyline. In all honestly, he just feels like a secondary character in Rick’s storyline right now, which is not where you want to be at. Where some players like Tiffany have gotten a major lift in content and story in the merge, Joe’s has felt really confusing and doesn’t seem to have much of an end goal. As such, he’s gonna end up here. I feel like he’s bound for either final tribal loser or one of the next couple votes, with little room elsewhere. Chance of winning - .01% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Tiffany - Sure, we’ll humor Tiff a bit here. Her content has been like… actually phenomenal in the last couple episodes. She is a reliable narrator, she’s a rootable underdog, and she’s become a big player on the season. The problem is of course her abysmal pre-merge. There to me feels like there is so little chance for her to actually win based off that. Even still, there doesn’t seem to be much of a set-up storyline for her, moreso just a day by day story. I think Tiffany has come out of these last few episodes with way more of a beneficial outlook, and she is absolutely bringing the content and humor, but I do just wonder why they gave her so little at the start. There just feels like there is so much content with her allies all going and setting her up to be this major underdog figure that isn’t really established. I imagine Tiff is prob going to be booted around the final 9-7 spots as a relatively uncontroversial tribal. Though I guess there have been previous female winners that have gotten worse edits. Shrug. Chance of winning - .1% (+.09% from last episode)

Stephanie - Steph continues to dig her grave, and I’m actually feeling like she has big potential to be a final tribal loser. She continues to not get her way, and I feel like she has a very, very pointed moment this episode where she says she needs this vote to go her way, and it doesn’t. It felt like a very deliberate line for survivor editors to put in, because I’m sure she said this vote was important in other ways, but for this to be a need for her to win? Yeah- that seems like a bit of foreshadowing. I actually do feel like Steph is one of the most likely people to get to the end as she’s probably the old schooler (between Ozzy, Joe, Steph) that has the least threat level upon them. I do believe Steph is gonna be here a while, but this is a winner ranking, and I think Steph is being set up as a relatively likable, legend figure who just isn’t able to get her way and pays for it at the end. Chance of winning - .1% (-.08% from last episode)

It’d Take A Lot

.5 to 1% Chance to Win

Emily - Emily the under edited. Well ok, she actually has a decent total number, but in the first four episodes she had 16 confessionals, versus 6 in the last four. She was very paramount to the start of the season, but now when the lens is not leading to circumstances of her being in the spotlight, she doesn’t end up getting that much. She gets ok content, where we do understand her own strategic position and we know some of her allies and such, but overall it feels weakly developed compared to her allies of Rick and Christian. My gut is somewhat going to the idea that she’s probably going to be sniped first in that trio of Christian/Rick/her, possibly because they are nervous about the other two finding advantages and idoling out one of their allies. That being said, there’s still time for the storyline to develop, I just doubt that Emily will have much more to give. (That being said, what we have gotten from Emily has been nothing short of stellar). I’m gonna predict she lands in one of these awkward boots around 9th place. Chance of winning - .5% (-.5% from last episode)

Aubry - I’M SO CONFUSED. Like, what do we do with Aubry? She gets content, and it has been relatively consistent since merge, but it also feels so underwhelming. I watched the episode just a bit ago, and I’m having a hard time remembering anything she specifically said or did. I actually do think there is some upside from Aubry, but to me I really want to see some sort of redemptive qualities are somewhat qualifying her to be a winner, and right now she kinda reads as just a bit of an underdog story that feels like it will fail? Like most people I talk do about the season don’t even find Aubry’s storyline really compelling, which is a bad sign for someone’s winner potential where they are in a situation like this. I’m a bit lost on her, so I’ll keep her in this stable spot. Chance of winning - .5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Ozzy - Once more, I don’t see it. I think Ozzy is generally way higher on other’s lists, but for me he stands out as an obvious red herring. He gets a lot of content - and I mean a lot. He’s been a very consistent presence, but I feel like the undertones of what he is shown saying is bad. This episode was a clear highlight of this, where he is shown making a read, Cirie comes in, corrects it, and he is shown saying ‘thank goodness she was here or else I would’ve messed it up’. Like, consistently all of his work is shown just kinda in ways where others are given credit. He is shown as less strategic, social, and even strong than others, to the point where I’m starting to wonder if he’s like the second placer of the season and we’re being shown why he lost. I don’t like it. His alliance feels very important to the flow of the season, and so that’s why he’s not further down, but yeah… I don’t like what I see. Chance of winning - 1% (-1% from last episode)

It’d Take Some Magic

3% Chance to Win

Jonathan - Jonathan feels like a more refined edit of Aubry’s. Like not necessarily in the underdog way, but that it has this awkwardness of what do we do with what we have. He is shown consistently making solid reads, and a great plus is that both times he’s voted wrong they haven’t really shown him much right before the tribal. He normally says some sort of strategy and dips. This all being said, he does still ring to me like a dragon at the end of the season who gets like somewhere from 7th to 5th, but I think there is some sort of hope. I’m interested to see what happens next episode and his own thoughts on Chrissy/Coach’s elimination, because I think that could dramatically increase (or decrease) his chance of winning. Overall though, he is starting to feel less like a winner, more like a dragon. Chance of winning - 3% (-3% from last episode)

Cirie - Now THIS is the Cirie we know and love. I mean, this was clearly Cirie’s episode from start to finish. She begins by discussing her strategy on not being selected, then does her journey, then comes back and singlehandedly is shown controlling this vote and flipping everything upside down, to the point Ozzy gets dunked on to prove how great she is. Cirie is clearly set up as a legend, one of the most iconic Survivor players… but I just still don't like the start of her season. It feels too empty and hollow, where even after these great episodes, I don’t think this is a Cirie winner edit. I think she still has a while to go, and I think her vote could absolutely be the big dragon moment (where whoever does slay the final dragon goes to win the season), but yeah, her story feels much more like the send off of a legend (similar to Colby - just with way more strategic and social acumen). BUT, of anyone up to this point, I can see her finding a way to wiggle herself to the end. Chance of winning - 3% (+1% from last episode)

It’d Take Not Much

16 to 39.79% Chance to Win

Rizo - Every week I’m more and more baffled by what I am doing. Rizo is such a funny edit, where I still just see this growth edit every time, but I would be lying if I didn’t say this feels like the edit Rizo could get if he won. He is consistently shown being strategic and social and liked by so much of the cast. He is shown making great moves and being in control when other people probably should’ve gotten credit for those votes. All of this to say, Rizo absolutely has potential. Of all the 3 remaining people, I think he’s probably set up for like being one of the last eliminated players (Maybe 5th or 4th?), and is being set up as one of the new-era legends. Which like, fair, he is running this game, and he is quickly becoming one of the fan favorites of this season. I hate to say it, but he may even be rubbing off on me a bit. (Don’t tell anyone I said that.) Overall, I see big growth arc with a potential winner upside for R I Z G O D RIZGOD BABYYYY, and it feels way more complete than like Ozzy who is also in that alliance. Chance of winning - 16% (+4% from last episode)

Rick - The joy I had when Rick went for that idol was unmatched. There is so much energy and hype for Rick, and I loved the set-up and waiting game Survivor did not knowing when we’d see it come out. That being said, Rick stays in a neutral position. Good news for him is that he is set up with some threat level, he made a move, I now see a world in which he can win. The problem is that one of his big storylines is now concluded. The question is, will we see Rick to the same level we’ve done previously? Will he slot into the role of Christian’s sidekick, or will he continue with some level of individuality? Unlike Christian, I have a very hard time reading where Rick is going to place. He could be out in a vote or two, or he could go to the end. I think this guy will always be a question mark for me, but I am glad I had him high up throughout the season, because I absolutely still see the vision. This was a good episode, but one that was so circumstantial I need to see more before I move him up or down more. Chance of winning - 36% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Christian - ANDDD continuing the trend of the previous few weeks, Christian remains at the top of the leaderboard. It’s pretty simple honestly, this episode was not crazy for him, there was not a lot of theatrics, but he did still feel somewhat present. If an episode is not about that person, I like to run with the question ‘what do we know about this player after the episode’, and I feel like we still got glimpses into his social standing and his strategic game. We continue to see him get some light threat pressure, but not enough where I feel like he’s a huge target that’s about to get sniped out. This is a bit shorter of an explanation, but to me this didn’t need much. He’s present as needed, and got everything he should get if he’s a winner this season. As such, he continues as our top dog. Chance of winning - 39.79% (+.09% from last episode)

AND that’s a wrap for this episode! Thanks for taking a read, and feel free to comment or subscribe if you enjoyed :) have a lovely day, and see you soon (this was posted a bit later than my normal posts) for the episode 9 reflection!

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This episode once more proves a very common sentiment which seems to be cycling itself through this season. Give us a simple format - less twists, less crazy advantage reveals, and the chaos will sow itself.

What came from a huge 3 episode boot previously now brings us into a huge merge - with 14, yepppp, 14 people. That’s a lot of people to work with and highlight, and with this being what I consider to be the real merge episode, it also sheds a huge light on who our stars will be. As this season has progressed, you’ve seen me have a center focus really on three main players. With Gen gone, another name has been bubbling under the surface, and today’s episode definitely catapulted them into serious contender category. Who’s looking hot? Who’s, definitely, looking not? Read below to find out!

EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

As is customary, let’s reflect on our fallen player, the final winner standing, Dee. First up, can I just say I am thoroughly impressed with how Dee performed this season. I think she came in dead on arrival as the most impressive winner of the new era, and she performed absolutely well and proved why she should be considered for top tier winner status. She did get a little messy, and I think that her telling Emily some secrets was probably a rough sign, and just generally the slight betraying of Rizo was a poor move, I also see the potential upside on that if it does go the way she was trying to move. I also agree with players like Tiffany and her confusion on targeting Dee so early into merge, she is a prime shield that went so early. That being said, I’m not shocked with this elimination. Dee was high up on my potential contenders, but as I’ve been saying pretty consistently the past few weeks, she felt like she was being set up to be a big pre-merge or merge boot. Episode one I said this felt like a ‘big pre-merge blindside’, and while it wasn’t pre-merge, or really a blindside, that sentiment of her being set up as a huge power player was effectively analyzed to mean a somewhat earlier exit. I also said that when Dee told us Cirie was a threat, then went on to liking her, that felt like a death knell. And shocker, it was! This all being said, well done Dee. You made the most of a rather scary cast, and I’m glad we’ll be seeing her on the jury the rest of the season (and hopefully she’ll be asking some vicious questions come final tribal!).

Ok, that being said and done, let’s move on to the reflection on winner rankings, and as per usual, we’ll be going from least to most chance to win!

The Writing’s On (All) The Walls

.01 to .5% Chance To Win

Joe - In last place… yes, surpassing Tiffany, is Joe. I will give all my subscribers $1,000,000 if Joe wins this season. There is just no way, right? I mean, to begin, the honor & integrity thing is just constantly being bashed. Even the people who identify as being in this group kinda poke holes into the reliability of this strategy (namely Jonathan). I am almost prone to fully rule out anyone who even identifies themselves as part of this core, because I am that heavily anti-anyone in this camp winning. I had a friend who very wisely suggested Joe could be an FTC loser, and I actually do see merits in it, especially with how much it’s been highlighted that there will most likely be one player at FTC who follows this rulebook who will almost certainly not win. I think Colby was the last player who had any semblance of winning chances under this strategy, as he did come off very earnestly, but yeah this is about it for Joe. This episode, he got nothing. I guess you can count his firehouse analogy at tribal which lowkey got dunked on by Cirie, but aside from that he has no impact in this episode. Was this an episode he needed to be the star? Absolutely not. But, for a merge episode, I think he did desperately need some sort of content, and he got none. I’m sorry to see Joe go from such a visible to secondary character in 2 seasons, but his story seems not important to how this season will play out. Chance of winning - .01% (-.089% from last episode)

Tiffany - I am so, so happy to see Tiffany finally getting content. She’s such a fun confessionalist and brings so much character and energy to the episode which I felt like we were missing. (Side note: I loved her voting message for Coach, I did laugh a bit). Now, all of that to say, there’s still no chance. She had an absolutely horrible edit for the first half of the season, and with this constant message of celebration being shoved down our throats, there is no way someone as fun as Tiffany who wins gets this type of viewing. I do still believe she’s probably going to be getting the boot in the next few eliminations. Will it be immediate? I’m not sure, she’s definitely not in the best spot, but to be honest with mostly all her allies gone, she’s absolutely not a threat and could be picked up as a number. I have a small inkling she will probably just be the victim of a twist later in the game when people get split up and instead of doing a crazy move everyone defaults to the easier boot that has less connections. That all being said, we saw a decent strategic showing from her, so I’m glad we at least are getting that! Chance of winning - .01% (+.009% from last episode)

Chrissy - After Chrissy had such a big move last episode in sniping out Kamilla, we get pretty little follow up from her, as almost all the attention shifts to Tiff, Dee, and Jonathan. I absolutely loved her last episode, and I think a solid episode this time around would have had her actually addressing the ramifications of what happened. Instead, we get a brief confessional followed by her promptly disappearing from the episode. Chrissy has definitely become much more of a predominantly secondary character in this story. She does get her moments of victory, and I’m still such a huge fan of her, especially after her great story in episode three, but unfortunately we just haven’t seen much growth since. My thought is she will probably be a victim of being not super social with whatever opposing side is brewing and being picked off rather unceremoniously. Her winning potential looks rough, and I think had she been a winner we’d see her following up on her goals set on episode three and showing her building much more solid relationships. Chance of winning - .1% (-.1% from last episode)

Stephanie - What? Stephanie is lower on the rankings after this episode? Why?? Yeah, generally I feel even though she had this shining moment of her overcoming adversity, this felt like the same old Steph from the last few episodes. Pretty much the entirety of her content is from that twist, so to begin it is extremely circumstantial, but even after that journey she gets nothing. I feel like we have almost zero perspective from her on who her allies are, what her plan is, or what her main story is trying to point towards. To add salt to the wound, she comes back from exile and kind of just gets dismantled by Cirie. Exposing her advantage after specifically saying she wouldn’t is another sign of a losing edit. We’ve now seen this from a few people, namely Mike White and Dee, who specifically have a strategy they tell to the camera, then they are shown not following that plan, and then going home soon after. Now, Steph could very well have longevity, (I actually believe she probably will go far), but winning potential? I don’t see it gang. Chance of winning - .18% (-.02% from last episode)

Coach - Oh no. Remember how I said that people who go against their sound strategy will usually meet their demise shortly after? Looks at Coach. This, unfortunately, was an awful episode for Benjamin. He actually started the episode kind of strong, getting some kind of strategic content. Unfortunately, the first five minutes seemed to be more of a leading up to a downfall as Coach seems like a literal lunatic for the rest of the episode. He is called hypocritical, a liar, and showed as kinda crazy as he’s rambling off haikus. The worst part was his confessional where he talks about old Coach coming back. This is a bad thing (ok, bad thing for his winning chances. Content wise? this is literal gold). I love Coach. He has returned after years of being away from our screens and he is absolutely delivering on the content we were hoping for. That being said, what is to come of him? I think he pretty much has two separate paths. The first is that he goes in the next 2-3 votes. I think a lot is starting to fall back onto him, and I am lacking a distinct amount of confidence in his chances of making it far. That being said, there is also a solid chance he could make it to the end and lose. He feels like the definition of a losing edit, with him having this confidence which is just getting trounced on by like… literally everyone else. His edit is prominent, so is there a chance of redemption? I mean, weirder things have happened. But I wouldn’t put many bets on it. Chance of winning - .5% (-.5% from last episode)

Aubry - The final person in the idk I don’t see it sort of tier. Aubry is… ugh yikes. It feels like she is secondary in her own story. I hated how the editing team handled Genevieve and her rivalry. The conclusion of it just unfortunately felt super unsatisfying, and I feel like if there was more emphasis on Aubry claiming victory, this episode wouldn’t have been a huge deal. The problem is, this episode felt like a ‘what is Aubry going to mess up next’ and continuing her trend of being socially outcast. We don’t even see Aubry really address how she messed up and wants to be better in the future, it’s almost entirely told through the lens of other players like Christian. Aubry does play her idol, so the reason why her chances of winning don’t go down is that if she does have a good episode next time showing her bounce back I could see some level of longevity. That all being said, I would be shocked if Aubry were to have won, that this would be the way it was shown. Which is, quite frankly, just messy. Chance of winning - .5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Big Characters & Old Era Dragons

1 to 2% Chance To Win

Emily - Our chronic yapper, financial analyst Emily Flippen. I will say, I just love the level of chaos Emily injects in this season. I was scared she would be gone pre-merge, and the good news is that now that she’s made merge, a lot of the ‘weaker in challenges’ argument becomes a bit less relevant. Now, the problem is that we have really not had much of an Emily check in in a pretty long time. Her edit this season seems to just moreso revolve around her leaking everything and having a witty confessional or two. Is it massively entertaining? Yes, we are absolutely having a blast with seeing her just be so chaotic, but it leaves a lot of room for chances to win. I think there’s potential in the edit, realistically we just passed the half way point, so the jury is still very, extremely far out (well, figuratively at least). That all being said, nothing in what I have seen has geared me towards her being a late game player. Hence, the odds. Chance of winning - 1% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Cirie - I am just so glad to see Cirie continually be shown as just one of the best players of Survivor. There is one clear thing in how Cirie is being portrayed, and it is extremely savvy. She is on top of social cues, strategic moves, and has one of what I believe to be stacked alliances in the game. Truly, I feel like the CiRizard of Oz trio has to be locked in until like… at least final 9, right? They are getting a lot of hype, and it makes sense. That all being said, I can’t help but see this edit as being more of a legendary vibe. Her and Ozzy are iconic old era players, and them going far all but guarantees their big edits. However, for Cirie, what we are still lacking is narrative. Rizo, and kindaaaa Ozzy but not really, feel like they have more of a winning story being built up. I think if Cirie wins she dominates the screen time from start to finish, and while she does get her fair share, I do feel it does lack some level of depth. This stands out to me like a clearly huge dragon (someone who is voted out, usually by the winner, and is one of the big players of the season). Because of this, her odds aren’t super high, but the editors could pull a fast one on us. Chance of winning - 2% (+.5% from last episode)

Ozzy - Ozzy hater here, it remains. Look, I don’t wanna say this, but his edit is looking better! Well, kinda. I do still feel some one-dimensional-ness, and this episode felt like a pretty big cooldown for him. The problem I have is that I feel like he lacks narrative push. When the story of the season is told up until now, it feels more like Ozzy is being pushed and pulled by others, (or he goes out to fish and misses the entirety of tribal discussions), and then he finds or is given an advantage. He is surrounded by big players, and so I do see some people arguing that this would inevitably drown his odds of getting content even if he won, but to me it still feels hollow. He has the second most confessionals, and yet I just feel like I have a better grasp on Cirie and Rizo’s head more than him. I think he’s the most likely in this category to start thriving, but for now he lands here. Chance of winning - 2% (+1% from last episode)

Probably New Era Dragons

6 to 12% Chance To Win

Jonathan - I’m so confused on this man. He is just a rollercoaster. This was actually a fantastic episode from him, he’s shown to be savvy and is kinda shown manipulating Dee (??) which is just a sentence I never thought I’d ever say. He continues to follow this theme he set for himself episode 1, and seems to find himself in some sort of alliance. That being said, it’s the honor/integrity alliance, which I just don’t see any one of them winning. That being said, Jonathan did have a confessional saying if you play that way, you need to still show some level of strategy. Of all of those honor people, he’s definitely my pick for most likely to win. So, you’re wondering, why did he go down so much in %. Well, I just feel like he’s a dragon. This edit just feels like it is building up to him going out as like a central challenge beast and strategic threat. I could honestly see him making finale. There is still a solid chance he could come around, but honestly his OG tribe was so underdeveloped and we didn’t get much from him on the swap that I am still unsure if that’s a smokescreen or a true sign. Chance of winning - 6% (-4% from last episode)

Rizo - Why. Just. Why. Ok, I jest mostly, but why is Rizo third? Let’s be real, he is absolutely killing it. I just think our guy is losing fire making or getting fourth again hahaha. This trio alliance with Cirie/Ozzy has been getting such extreme setup that I would be lying if I said I didn’t see major upside for him. At the beginning of the season I said he felt like he had more of a growth arc, and I still truly see that, but I can’t also ignore that fellow season 40 players/winners (like Maryanne) had a similar growth edit before their victory. And - honestly? That’s how I would envision editors showing Rizo if he were to win, as the newcomer to the squad. This all being said, I do still have doubts. His early negativity felt too consistent, and right now I think the other 2 contenders feel better overall picks. Now, I would not be shocked at all if we see Rizo’s chances spike, but time will tell. Chance of winning - 12% (+8% from last episode)

Main Contenders

36 to 39.7% Chance To Win

Rick - Our newscaster! He continues to just be solid. Like, for me at this point, I was content with mostly anything but an invisible episode for him, and what we got was perfectly solid. He managed to say some minor strategic notes, but for the most part he slipped under the radar, which is great for him. This episode really didn’t need to revolve around him (and it would be confusing if it did), so him getting even some minor discussion felt good! I wish I had more notes, but him and Christian both had chill episodes, and unless something drastic happens, their ranks won’t be really changing for a bit I think! (His odds went slightly down just to give Rizo a higher %, nothing Rick did wrong.) Chance of winning - 36% (-1.5% from last episode)

Christian - Winner prediction! Finally, a cooldown for Christian, and a desperately, desperately needed one. We were drowning in Christian for six episodes, and this did feel like a bit of a reprieve. That being said, we still got subtle check ins with him, and we even had Christian’s name thrown out as a threat. It was so subtle, and had no consequence to the episode, but it is entirely that sort of thing editors like to sprinkle in throughout the season so on a rewatch we see that and go, oh gosh yeah even the players knew he was scary and didn’t get him out! Overall I think this episode was actually exactly what we needed to see from him, so he stays with a steady lead! Chance of winning - 39.7% (-.8% from last episode)

All done! Wahoo! Thank you for taking the time to read this all :) had a lot of fun with this episode after a bit of a trickier last week, and really excited to start seeing some more of this chaos. As always, feel free to subscribe or comment your own thoughts below. Have a lovely day!

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EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

First, a moment to reflect on our three fallen players.

Kamilla, I was honestly pretty sad to see her go, though I have to admit I’m not the most surprised by it. I had a feeling her and Chrissy are being relatively set-up to be one of the quicker, easier vote outs, and it did happen. We saw a pretty typical editing style where someone gets a big spike in good content before going out in the next episode. I think this was overall a solid storyline, but her not getting much Kyle content felt like an almost certain death knell. I think she absolutely got swap screwed, but I think we definitely weren’t meant to be devastated by her going.

Genevieve. Oh boy. Gang, I can certainly admit when I was wrong, and guys, I was wrong. I had a lot of trust Genevieve would be a late game dragon at worst, and she gets taken out here. I came out of this episode just shocked. Genevieve has had so much good, solid content and longevity foreshadowed. First, her talk with Kyle where he told her to win it. Then, her consistent talks about keeping her second idol a secret. Finally, it felt like the editing was meant to show Genevieve as a more strategically adept player than Aubry. All of this to me felt like really great signs, and I feel like there is just… no pay off whatsoever. It kinda just makes me feel bad, but I guess Genevieve is getting the screwed over pre-jury edit. I mean, can we just reflect for a second. She finds two idols, and has to give both away. Then, she gets swapped at merge into probably the worst group of five she could’ve been. I mean, I don’t blame her for getting out here. I hope we are able to see her again, because wow. Her edit also felt so good, when she got the ‘NOT SAFE’ I thought they might’ve flipped it to Joe, because I just couldn’t believe this is how it was ending for her. I think there’s also going to be a lot of weirdness with the edit. We had a pretty big scandal with a lot of people speaking out on the lack of presence from women’s POV this season, and I thought because Genevieve had the most consistent strategic editing from a woman, she had a really good chance of going far. Without her, I’m definitely concerned on who is going to take that mantle. Anyways, all of this to say, Genevieve’s been one of my top 3 contenders the whole time, and to see her not even make jury is pretty devastating. Hope to see you back!

Finally, Colby. Wow, gang we lost half of our contenders on episode 1 this episode. I think he had so much consistent longevity being propped up with his solid confessionals, and now I guess it was moreso just him being propped up as a legend who also got a bit screwed. Now, my stocks in him weren’t the highest, he was significantly behind the other 3 in terms of my winning odds. That being said, I’m sad to see him go, but it was a beautiful send off to one of the biggest early season legendary players.

Ok, all of that being said, let’s get to winner rankings!

I Don’t Believe It Tier

.001 to .5% Chance of Winning

Tiffany - I think Survivor editors took the hint that people weren’t happy with Tiff only have 2 confessionals in five episodes. Now, she’s at seven… yay! That being said, let’s be real, so many of her confessionals were super hollow. There was very rare strategic content in what she said, and it felt like they were just trying to give her something. I fear this may be a sign she could be in trouble very soon, and this was a similar content spike to Kamilla last episode. I think if we’re thinking about storylines, she has very little of any. I’m sorry Tiff, glad to see you get something, but it really lacked the substantiveness that we needed to give you any boost. Chance of winning - .001% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Joe - I feel more vindicated every episode, because there’s just no way Joe wins this season. Oncemore, the content he gets feels super basic and more introductory than anything else. When I say introductory, I mean he gives a basic description of the reward, or the merge, with little about his standing in his tribes or the dynamics around it. This episode felt like a bit of a nothing burger for him, and for it being merge, he needed something big. I don’t predict anything crazy from him going forward. Chance of winning - .099% (-.101% from last episode)

Chrissy - I’m so glad to see life out of Chrissy here! She’s a huge strategist, and I’m glad to see her work her magic here and do a big move. That being said, it feels a little too late. She got pretty minimal content here, and I think she needed more to build her up as a viable winner candidate. I think there is still some ounce of hope, but it would have to come with some great scenes next episode of her actively reshaping her game and trying to change her perception. Until she does, I unfortunately don’t see her making it super far. (Especially with the lowest confessional count of this season). Sorry Chrissy, but so glad to see you get a great moment!! Chance of winning - .2% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Stephanie - I feel like a consistent thing across everyone in this category is either them getting negative perceptions (Joe/Chrissy), or their edits feelings very hollow (Tiffany/Stephanie). Stephanie gets solid content across the board, but she absolutely feels like a secondary character to a bunch of other players. Even today, where she had immunity, I feel like she could’ve been able to show her positioning in the tribe and how she feels about her relationships with Chrissy and Kamilla. However, almost the entire time she just fell behind Jonathan here. Which, realistically, she has been doing this whole game, whether it’s Kyle, Christian, Jonathan, etc. I’m not going to have my bets hedged on Stephanie. Chance of winning - .2% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Aubry - Yeah, big down fall here. We see this big back and forth with Genevieve the last five seasons, and Aubry just kind of gets… I don’t know nothing? She gets a confessional, but almost all of the content about voting Genevieve goes to Rick and Christian. I don’t like how this storyline wrapped up. Actually, I’m really disappointed by it. It feels like this should’ve been a built up story where Aubry goes from underdog to hero, and slays the big dragon that’s been overshadowing her, and it doesn’t happen. I think if she were to win this season, Aubry would’ve gotten so much more fireworks for this, but she doesn’t. I wish she honestly did, this would’ve been way more satisfying. Instead, I think a lot of people leave this just feeling bad for Gen. Not the best look for Aubry. Chance of winning - .5% (-1.5% from last episode)

I Won’t Fall For Your Tricks Tier

1% Chance of Winning

Emily - Ouch, what a fall from grace. She only gets one confessional, and while it’s a pretty solid strategy analysis, this episode she really does disappear into the background. We don’t really see her talk about that personal angle that’s so important for a winner. At the end of the day, I fear she is the secondary character, similar to Stephanie, to a lot of others. For Emily, she’s secondary to the Christian, Rick, Dee, and Cirie’s of the world. I had a lot of hope for her before, because in the swap she really did break out a bit, but she seems to have fallen right back into the position she was on original tribes from an editing perspective. Is there still some chance? Sure, I guess, but I think this would be a really weird showing for a winner. Chance of winning - 1% (-2% from last episode)

Coach - Big fall from grace, again! I do think we saw Coach pick that archetype of wanting to be more chill, the Tide Walker (I am slightly rolling my eyes because it is a bit ridiculous in such Coach fashion). That all being said, Coach is saying one thing, and being shown doing the opposite. Sometimes it could be a good thing (Coach feeling scared but being shown being in control)… but that’s not what is happening. People find him a bit ridiculous, and he seems more like a caricature versus someone with real depth. Simultaneously, he is shown… honestly not a lot this episode. His only real talk is about how he messed up talking to Dee. Nothing about how he wants to move forward, his allegiances, it’s just hollow. Not a great sign from the Dragon Slayer himself. Chance of winning - 1% (-1.5% from last episode)

Ozzy - I continue to be so biased, I get it. I’m not a big Ozzy fan, but I just really feel not great on his edit. This episode, actually really good for him! He gets clearly a lot of content, but again, so much of what he gets is by circumstance. Of course the exile guys are going to be getting a lot, of course the guy with the extra vote and idol get content, so this episode is not enough for me. I’m still really held back by a lot of his negative content from the early episodes. Now, I think of anyone, he has the best potential to rise to the top of the contenders, especially of anyone in the bottom half of the list. I just feel like he plays as a secondary strategist and social player to Cirie. Am I wrong? Possibly. Again, I’m not a big Ozzy fan, so that could very well be affecting my own analysis, but I just still don’t see it. Chance of winning - 1% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Semi-Surprised If You Win Tier

1.5 to 4% Chance of Winning

Cirie - This was a super special episode giving tribute to those like Cirie and Colby in that tribal. Cirie got some seriously good content and was able to show off her strategic and social acumen again. That being said, there’s still just something weird with this edit where it feels like something is just missing. I have a tough time figuring out what is missing, but I just feel like her presence feels like a huge narrator. She tells the lessons, the themes of the season, but she doesn’t actually act on or use a set up theme for herself, which feels very important towards being a winner. I may be missing something, but I feel like it’ll be hard for her to win this season. Chance of winning - 1.5% (+.5% from last episode)

Dee - What an explosive episode for Dee, with a ton of social and strategic content. I do feel like there is just a missing piece where she’s gotten such minimal content before this. Like each episode she has gotten only 1 or 2 confessionals, and while it’s been consistent, to me there’s been a lack of winner-ness from what she’s been getting. I feel like she is being set up moreso with a dragon edit, or in other words a big player that the winner needs to take out to win the game. She does get some funny moments, like the puppy line this episode, but I think a lot of casual audiences that I’ve been with don’t necessarily receive it as positively. She comes off a bit too sneaky at times, and I feel like the edit is playing that up to be a big victory when she goes. That being said, Dee is absolutely proving why she is one of the best players (maybe not just of the new era, but ever??), because she is absolutely killing this game. We’ll have to see if her edit continues to blossom though before I’m able to boost her winning odds. Chance of winning - 2% (+1.001% from last episode)

Rizo - Rizo, Rizo, Rizo. Look, I’m not a huge Rizo fan, but I can admit when I’m wrong, and I do think I was wrong beforehand. He is getting a lot of solid content here, and the more that’s shown about him, the better his odds were. Last week, he stayed relatively low because a lot of his content did feel circumstantial. While that circumstantial-ness continues, it does feel a bit too overbearing to be mere coincidence. Rizo is certainly being built up as a big character this season, so the question really is, is it being set up to be a winning edit, or more of a growth edit? I lean more towards growth. Rizo’s theme is really about him becoming a bit more mature and evolving into this big player in Survivor history. To me, this could lean winner, but I feel like growth seems much more compatible, especially with how he was shown pretty negatively at the start. I love this Ozzy/Rizo/Cirie group though, and I think this group could definitely be going far. Chance of winning - 4% (+3% from last episode)

Main Contenders

10 to 40.5% Chance of Winning

With us reaching merge, our contenders list on the edgic chart moves down to a top 3, and while I’ve been thinking there have been only 3 big contenders for a while now, we are going to swap out one (rest in peace, Genevieve), with a new one (welcome in, Jonathan). These three? They hold a combined 88% chance of winning. This progression or dominance of winning chances lines up about right with trends of my previous edgic, and I’ve been correct previously about my top three before. A side note as well, every season I’ve done edgic I have predicted the winner in my top 4 contenders episode 1. With 2 of those contenders gone now in Genevieve and Colby, there are only two that remain, with Rick and Christian. I will continue to probably believe in these two, especially with how central their duo seems to be in the edit! But, enough blabbering, let’s go over our top 3!

Jonathan - Jonathan quite literally dominates this episode in terms of screen time. From the first few seconds to the end of his tribal, he is present and active, shown as a huge decision maker. I think we see him theme of being judged on his stereotype come to full fruition here. The question is, how long does he last? Realistically, he feels like a dragon edit. A big hallmark of that type of edit is getting a lot of praise, and he is praised in almost every pre-merge challenge. He now also gets a ton of content on how he needs to evolve, and how he has to adapt his gameplay, as pure loyalty will only get you a vote or two in the end. He is fully set up to potentially win, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that happen. I still hate the 0 confessional episode, but this episode I feel like more than makes up for it. Chance of winning - 10% (+7% from last episode)

Rick - Rick! I am perplexed. He actually gets a lot of great content, we see him early on in the merge, he gets content going over where his place is on the tribe that’s in the blood moon twist, and I feel like we’re meant to agree his position is inherently risky. That all being said, he also seems very wanting to go Joe, and doesn’t get what he wants. I don’t think it’s a huge problem? Like, sure we’ve seen that happen a few times, and this was a very weird scenario, so I’m not too upset by it. That all being said, with Genevieve going, that is a huge chunk of winning chances up in the air, and with the consistency and greatness of Rick so far, I am going to put a ton of stock into him here. If Rick wins this season, I think this episode was perfectly fine for him, so he’ll stay pretty close to the top here. Chance of winning - 37.5% (+9.5% from last episode)

Christian - EVERY WEEK. You can check my blogs, I say the same thing. If Christian somehow wins this season, how would his edit look? Every week I say the same thing again, this is how it would look. This season is all about celebration, so let’s celebrate it with a great winner edit. Maybe it truly is just that simple. Christian once more gets great content, shown to be a great strategist, and once more gets his way. This episode, by all intents, should have been Aubry’s storyline. Somehow, it’s moreso Christian and Ricks. We still have their idol hidden, and we’re once more reminded of it and how deadly it could be. I feel like the previous weeks I’ve been really doubting if this could just be as simple as the edit is showing us… and maybe it just is. And if it is, you know what? I’m ok with it. Chance of winning - 40.5% (+16.5% from last episode)

You made it to the end, thanks for reading! I appreciate all the support in weeks past, and ask if you have any comments, feel free to leave them below, and leave a subscribe if you want to keep receiving my content! Have a lovely rest of your day!

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EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

First up, let’s remember our courageous victims of this episode.

Angelina. Last week’s post on Angelina felt pretty reminiscent of what actually happened. Cila tribe had a much more interesting tribal, and while Christian had some theoretical danger, it felt like Angelina was in a much more likely position to go, especially after Christian passed his shot in the dark to Ozzy. Angelina is such a fun character, and unfortunately this season it felt like she kind of felt a bit less present. It makes sense, she was an easier boot, but I do feel sad to see her go so passively. (Though I did absolutely love her handing a jacket out as she left!). Her voting out felt like it was going to happen soon, and so it definitely wasn’t shocking to see her go. Still an all time character? Yes. Was it because of this season? Unfortunately not.

I knew All Too Well in my tribe swap review that Charlie would be in trouble, but unfortunately I began doubting my initial thoughts. I felt like this was set up for Charlie to take out Rizo and the idol landing back in Genevieve’s hands, but I was wrong! Charlie was someone who had a slight spike in the last episode, mainly because he had gotten some form of consistent content, and I did not take into account Rizo’s set up longevity from before. I love Charlie, he is such a fun character, but this season did feel a bit off from him. I know not everyone can be the main character like he was in 46, but I did miss some of his antics. I hope we can see him again in the future!

And now, 25% of the cast has been voted out! With only 18 players remaining, let’s give each of them a description and their share of the chance to win!

I Mean… No Right?

.001% to .999% Chance to Win

Tiffany - This is so sad. I mean, she gets nothing, AGAIN? This has got to be one of the top 10 most invisible castaways ever. She has gotten 2 confessionals in like 10 hours of Survivor content, so she’s not winning. I mean, there’s truly no way. She comes out barely not getting an invisible this episode because she gets a lot of mentions/praise from Aubry/Jeff, but even still we have practically no idea what she’s thinking or doing, and she feels like a mere afterthought to this season. I feel bad for her because I know it must suck spending time out there and feeling like you’re not getting seen. Any way, I think we can all agree it feels nearly impossible for her to win. Chance of winning - .001% (-.009% from last episode)

Chrissy - Last episode I had her in a middle tier, but with the asterisk that I really wanted more from her. Unfortunately, this episode she is the true embodiment of invisible, I truly can’t even remember her doing anything here. As we will talk about later, this idea of an invisible episode isn’t necessarily a death knell in my eyes anymore, but having 2? In the first 5 episodes? That feels pretty telling for how Chrissy’s trajectory will go. I even think there’s a possibility she could’ve been included on the Coach segment, but instead she is just absent. Sorry Chrissy, it hurts to put you here. Chance of winning - .2% (-.8% from last episode)

Joe - I know a lot of people may not like me for putting Joe this low, but remember, this is a ranking of chance to win, not longevity. Unfortunately for Joe, I really don’t see it. I hate Joe’s negativity in the second episode, especially because it feels very unresolved. This was the first episode in which I feel like the honor/integrity alliance is put in a somewhat positive light, where it had been bashed by multiple players (Kamilla/Rick/Christian/etc.), but even still it feels like it was made to come off almost comedically. All of that being said, Joe still feels like the least important member of that trio. Coach is his same kooky self, while Colby generally feels like he gets solid confessionals that build him up. Joe, on the other hand, feels still just a bit bland. All of this combined, I would be shocked if Joe wins. Chance of winning - .2% (-.198% from last episode)

Stephanie - Ehh… this episode was ok for Stephanie all things considered. We do hear her opinion, and she doesn’t come off as too bad, but I just think narratively she feels like a second thought. Sure, on a tribe with Emily, Ozzy, and Christian, chances are you are going to be parched for screen time, but even still it feels like we’re just clawing to get some ounce of perspective from her. The other three are bigger characters, and it feels like all of them have agency, which to me feels like a big thing to emphasize. The winner of this season I feel like will be a big player, it’s been said multiple times that is what will happen. Stephanie doesn’t fit the criteria. Her previous episodes have been horrendous, and this episode did not do enough to convince me to change my mind. Chance of winning - .3% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Kamilla - Yes! A great episode from Kamilla, where we see her way out her options, talk about why she wants to vote each player, and makes the decision which I think leans to what the edit was saying what she was going to do. All big pluses! That being said, one good episode is not going to shift my views on Kamilla yet, she’s going to need something more before I react. I have to think back to before where she’s gotten minimal content and barely touched on Kyle leaving. Kamilla was in a spot this episode where it was necessary for her to get this content, this was a split vote where she was the sole deciding vote. There was no way she wouldn’t get this type of screen time. So, as we move forward, I look favorably on this episode, because it was presented very well for her, but expect me to need more of this complexity to move up my rankings. Chance of winning - .3% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Dee - Dee has fully plummeted down my rankings, and it is for one reason and one reason only. Cirie. We’ve seen this for a few people, they get set-up or a lesson they need to learn or harness, for example Mike saying he needs to come off as the fun guy. For the people that do what they said, they’ll go far, but if they break their lessons, like Mike going full strategist, they go home. Dee’s only confessional in episode 3 was about Cirie and needing to vote her out and not work with her…. Well that’s not a good sign. Dee is now fully working with Cirie, and while Dee comes off perfectly fine this episode, I am convinced this choice will lead to her downfall. And for that, down goes the win rate. Chance of winning - .999% (-.501% from last episode)

Big Characters (Probably) Not Winning

1% to 2% Chance to Win

Rizo - Rizo had a big episode here, and I expect nothing less from him. He gets viewed in very positive lights by Dee, but also negatively by Charlie. I also just am not vibing with the way he’s being portrayed. It just feels a bit too negative, he feels a bit too cocky. I also just can’t help but feel like Genevieve is set up to get Rizo’s idol, especially because her confessionals in episode 4 felt so geared to her getting it and no one knowing she was the one that gave it to him. Rizo is certainly a big character, and I actually think Rizo may have some longevity here where he could make it to merge and beyond. That being said, I feel like Charlie would’ve been portrayed as a bit goofier in previous episodes and Rizo would feel more sympathetic if he was a winner. Chance of winning - 1% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Ozzy - This is my hot take and I am going to continue sticking to it. Ozzy has what feels like a good moment at the start where he gets some redemption for his outward anger. That being said, we’re obviously meant to like Christian, and he just calls Ozzy a baby, and I think we’re meant to resonate and agree with him. I think back to the Coach v Ozzy war, and Coach after that has been portrayed as so insane, that it would’ve been so easy to make Ozzy look great/the winner of that argument, but it feels much more grey than black and white there. Ozzy is undeniably a bit character, but he feels so hypocritical. I still hate how he went fishing last episode instead of strategizing, which is against what he originally stated this season on what he wanted to do. We’ve had people hate on his strategy and social games, and Jeff’s lowkey mocked Ozzy’s physical game, and this screams not winning. May I be blinded by Ozzy not being my fave player? Absolutely, but I also think I may be right here. Chance of winning - 1% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Cirie - Cirie is definitely set up to be a big impact player, but I feel like her odds don’t look great for winning. Something I keep on noticing is her secondary character-ness. It feels like Cirie doesn’t present original thoughts, it is always someone initiating and going to Cirie, and then we get a confessional from her talking about whatever was said. Is it a bad thing? Not necessarilyyyy, but I once more go to this idea of agency. Cirie feels a bit shallow editing wise, but shallow in a… kind of complicated way? We get her perspective and understand who she is, but a lot of it just feels so lackluster at the same time. I know edgic is very much based on vibes, so I want to be able to explain why I feel a certain way, but for Cirie in particular I feel like I can’t exactly explain it, but I just feel like this is not a ‘Cirie wins this season’ edit. I think she has one of the biggest opportunity to rise up my contenders list, but I have my serious reservations on it. Chance of winning - 1% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Aubry - In a tribe that did not get a lot of content, Aubry actually got something pretty substantial in building a relationship with Coach. This is definitely more of a gut read, but I just… I just don’t see it? Like, to me that confessional from Coach on agreeing with Aubry felt incredibly forced and there was a ‘but’ after it. I still feel like we’re meant to side with Genevieve here. THAT ALL BEING SAID - Aubry has by far the biggest shot of rising to the top of contenders. She has a very set up storyline about being a tribe pariah and trying to find her group, and with something potentially coming up in the future, I could see her breaking out. I do think her being like the last big pre-merge boot feels more likely, but if there’s anyone who could have an underdog winner story, it is absolutely her right now. Chance of winning - 2% (+1% from last episode)

The Question Marks

2.5 to 4.5% Chance to Win

Coach - I mean, what an enigma. Coach is truly one of the best casting choices in Survivor history. He is so out there and I am enthralled every time he comes on the screen. I loved this episode for him, he locked in an alliance and continued his goofy edit. Now, is he winning? Ehhhh. Look, I always ask, ‘If XYZ won the season, how would you edit it?’, and like, yeah how would they edit a season Coach wins? They’d have to show him being crazy out there, but also having some strategy, and they kind of do it here. Look, do I love how over the top he constantly is? Yes, but it does make it harder to say he’s winning. It felt like Colby and Joe were kinda indulging his sense of wonder this episode, but hey, maybe that’s just the vibe this season. That being said, I still don’t like the bashing of playing honorably this season, and for me that makes me feel like one of those three, though extra chance for Colby or Coach, may be a losing finalist. That being said, a solid edit which could be a wacky winner. Chance of winning - 2.5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Jonathan - I’m so perplexed on where to put Jonathan. The thing that I keep noticing is how much he is constantly praised for challenges, which again plays into this idea he set at the beginning of the season about appearing like the surfer bro. This episode he gets blindsided, and while that’s not great, I don’t think they make him look super dumb. Well, they do I believe someone mentions we don’t need to worry about him, which to me plays into his strategy. Yeah, I don’t know. I definitely don’t want to move him around more until we see what happens in the next episode or two. Because he’s in this weird limbo, we’ll keep him pretty stable. Chance of winning - 3% (-.5% from last episode)

Emily - Look, after the last few episodes, we needed a cooldown from Emily, and we did get it. This was a simpler episode for her, where she talked about warning Christian and does so, and that was… kindaaa that? Overall, it’s good we get to check in with her, but I have been evaluating Emily’s story so far. It’s been solid, but I am starting to feel less positively on her trajectory. I still have a lot of thoughts on how she felt the least developed of Rick/Christian/her in that alliance, and I think we may see in the future that she falls back into that same category. I sure hope not, she is such a cool person to watch play, but I am not as high as I once was. She feels more like the chaotic hurricane we see for a bit before she takes the hit coming towards their alliance of 3. Chance of winning - 3% (-1% from last episode)

Colby - I. am. so. confused. All of these people in this category are in this weird limbo space where it can go really well or really bad. Colby, while never having gone to tribal, continues to get content, and it almost always feels like the most developed in the group he is in. For Zach Brown last week, his confessional felt very important and the most related to the game. This week, during the naming segment, his also felt really intentional. That’s what I get from Colby, is this sense that his edit feels intentional. It’s a great thing, but the only problem is that it also lacks a bit of depth? Like he throws out these cool phrases and foreshadowings of him going far, but we also don’t know much about his perspective on his alliances or who he wants out. Because of that, he feels almost like a narrator and not a player, and ideally you want to be both. That being said, he has a chance, I guess? Chance of winning - 4.5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

The Contenders

24 to 28% Chance to Win

This week’s top 3 feel a lot closer than last weeks. I felt like last week I had more confidence in who I thought would win, but I actually feel a lot less certain. Don’t worry, this is a good thing. I love not feeling certain, and having 3 big characters with question marks is fun to analyze, so let’s dive in.

Christian - Every week, I ask, “Would this be how Christian is edited if he won?”, and like… yes, yes it is. We are constantly shown Christian’s perspective, we love who Christian loves, and we hate who he hates. He is shown making the strategic moves, we are meant to love him, and he is by far the main character of the season so far. But, then the doubt sets in. Christian has gone to every tribal, of course he gets content. Christian found an advantage, of course he gets content. This pre-merge feels like there was no other option than to do this. So, is he a mid-merge boot that is the fan favorite? I debate this every week, and I feel like I will keep doing this for a long time. The % chance to win from 1st to 3rd has shrunk, and as the only one of the 3 to not have a 0 confessional episode, that feels like a favorable boost to our professor. I just can’t escape this thought that he’s given so much because he was the center of the pre-merge. Chance of winning - 24% (+.5% from last episode)

Genevieve - Man, 0 confessional episodes suck. I wish we could’ve gotten something from her, because we do get to hear from Aubry. That being said, I am coming around on the idea that a 0 confessional episode does not automatically eliminate you. This episode was a double tribal with her tribe being safe, so there was so much less screen time for her group. All of that being taken into account, she will stay high. I think she’s gotten great set up before this, and I think it would be a mistake for me to sink her further until we see what is coming up next episode, especially after what happened with my #1 pick below… Chance of winning - 28% (-5% from last episode)

Rick - Wow what a comeback episode for our newscaster. After no confessionals last episode, I was scared I got it wrong. Had the previous posts I made wrong? Well it’s still entirely, entirely, possible, but I feel way better now. This episode was legit perfect for him. We see him set up an alliance with Jonathan, another big character, and lock it in. He discusses how he wants to form these bonds and lay low. Then, during the strategy segment, he largely disappears. This is great. Rick was blindsided, and instead of him boasting or being confident the tribal would go his way, we almost forget he was on the wrong side of the votes. We even see Rick saying good job to Rizo, in what I think comes off as heartfelt. This was not a flashy Rick episode, and I’m glad for it. It immediately corrected what we missed last episode, and does a great sign for a winner who is not on the right side of the votes and paints him in a mellower light. Will we buck the trend of winners never getting 0 confessionals this season? Maybe! Chance of winning - 28% (+8% from last episode)

Gang, look at you! You made it through everyone. Thanks for reading, I have a ton of fun writing these, and I hope you enjoyed it all!

As a reminder, edgic is fully subjective. It is totally ok, and honestly it’s good, to have different opinions than me! Feel free to leave your disagreements down below and I’ll touch base on it in the comments! Subscribe too if you enjoyed :)

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Another episode of Survivor and… well… ouch. This is the worst rated episode on IMBD… ever. Unfortunately, I completely understand the sentiment. The beginning 1/5 and the final 2/5ths of the episode were perfectly normal - exciting even. But, I can’t lie, that middle portion was really rough. Zach Brown seems like a cool guy, and I’m glad he likes Survivor, but I don’t think anyone needed that much of him. I’m sure you’re probably wondering, well how much did he get? Well, let’s just say he now ties or has more confessionals than a couple people. We know more about him than poor Tiffany. I get the celebration of it all, but I can’t buy into it unfortunately. The episode aside from that was entertaining, and what I actually got from the episode was super vital. In fact, after this, only three people make up over 75% of winning chances in my opinion (and honestly, this is me understating it, I could probably boost it up to 85%). Who are those people? Read below to find out!

EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

First, a moment to reflect on our fallen soldier, Mike.

Wow, this was one of the most unexpected eliminations I’ve seen in a while. I just did not see Mike going home anytime soon, but I fear his edit does make sense in retrospect. We see him want to come off as the goofy, chill guy, but in actuality this episode we see him for the glorious mastermind he is, but, unfortunately for Mike, Christian also notices this. And, as such, Mike takes the axe. He definitely is a note towards the idea that if you stray from what you originally set out to do story wise, you’re going to be in trouble. With that, one of our heavy hitters in terms of content is gone, and it definitely impacts winning odds quite a bit. This episode had a lot of people, and I mean a lot, lose a lot of credibility for me in terms of win equity, and as such, this list will definitely be getting more and more honed in on who I think the winner will be. Can I still be shocked? Absolutely, we’re barely a third of the way through the season. Will I be? I don’t know! Take a read and let me know what I did right - or wrong.

Yeah, Try Again Next Time Tier

.01 to .398% chance to win

Tiffany - I’m sure no one is surprised to see our perennial least likely to win candidate remain in place, and for great reason. In four episodes, we have had Tiffany talk for significantly less than Zac Brown did in the span of 20 minutes. We barely know anything of her story, she’s relegated to a supporting member to Dee and Aubry, though even then we really don’t get any insight from her. I don’t like eliminating people fully from contention, because there’s always a chance. It’s just… like… really? It kind of just feels like the editing team forgot she existed and is being shoved into whatever little moments they can find in the finished script. Do we really think there’s any world Tiffany somehow wins this season? I don’t, so she pretty much gets the bare minimum winning chance I can muster. Chance of winning - .01% (-.09% from last week)

Angelina - Speaking of people on the bottom of rankings, Angelina. I’m still pretty sad she just gets the bare minimum of content, and the content she does get feels either circumstantial or negatively leaning. We get her being called lazy, the easy out, the simple vote, with her allies (except Mike) being perfectly fine flipping on her. Vatu is almost certainly going to tribal next week (since it is a double elimination and… well… Vatu isn’t looking too great physically). I would be very unsurprised if Vatu’s tribal was pretty quick with Angelina (or potentially Ozzy? But more likely Angelina) just being the easy vote while we focus on the more complex of the other two tribes heading to tribal. Angelina has little story lines, consistent negativity, and what feels like a quickly approaching death sentence, and as such, the verdict. Chance of winning - .01% (-.09% from last week)

Kamilla - Kamilla has not necessarily done anything wrong per se, but she very, very clearly has not done much right. She’s barely checked in (a total of 4 confessionals ties her with Chrissy and Dee for the second lowest), but I think especially compared to Dee and Chrissy, her content feels very bland. We know so, so little of her story, and the fact she barely talks about Kyle’s departure still feels so bad. For Kamilla to have a chance - or even stay at the same winning chance, she needed great content or some sort of set up storyline. Instead? Well, again, it’s just kinda boring. Could Kamilla have longevity in the game? I don’t doubt that it is possible. That being said, I don’t think a winner would feel so personality-less on a season where the characters feel so bold. Chance of winning - .3% (-.2% from last week)

Stephanie - I have been a pretty anti-Stephanie winning person for a bit, and this episode really just hammered it home. Stephanie actually started off with a fine intro confessional, and I was ready to take a breather and relax on her losing odds. However, the last half of the episode was abysmal from her, mainly because she was extremely absent. For someone who was 1 of three people who had control over the vote, we barely hear anything from her. This segment is almost entirely Christian, with some sprinkling from Emily. If Stephanie won this season, I would expect her to at least acknowledge the level of power she had there and be able to articulate what her thinking is going into tribal, but we get none of it. Stephanie (well… moreso the editing team) has proven now multiple times in a row she is someone we can check in with, but not someone important enough to prioritize, and because of that, her odds plummet significantly. Chance of winning - .3% (-.6%. from last week)

Joe - I don’t know, I just…. I just feel like Joe is so bland right now. He feels like he had some personality - all of which was negative by the way, to now just getting very small tidbits of things to say that feel largely like ‘whatever’ statements. There’s a clear delineation between a statement of impact, think something like what Colby said in his confessional during the Zac Brown segment, which had some sort of deeper, underlying meaning and could foreshadow something in the future, and a statement of basicness, which may involve detailing camp life or talking basic strategy. It’s just not impressive, and I think what we lack from Joe is real depth. Joe had such a rich depth of personhood in season 48, but this season he feels like the random loyal guy who is probably going to just go early merge and let that be that. I don’t see potential here. Chance of winning - .398% (-.102% from last week)

It’d Take Some Kind of Miracle Tier

1% chance to win

Chrissy - Chrissy barely claws herself into the final spot before the certain death tier, but let me be clear, she is hanging by a thread. She has some set-up, and we see that maybe there is some redemption available to her. I think we will see some sort of pay-off with that, maybe with her potential sending one of Dee, Tiff, or Kamilla home, but I feel like that’s most likely where the story ends for her. She feels much more like a supporting character who has some bigger moments, but ultimately will just be a victim of one of the many foreseeable double tribal episodes. Chance of winning - 1% (-.5% from last episode)

Ozzy - People are so excited for Ozzy and I just don’t see it. We’ve seen in multiple episodes Ozzy dissing his own strategic game, then others dissing his social game, and then Jeff calling him out for losing every challenge. He just feels like a punching bag for all of these insults, and I don’t really see much positive upside. He vaguely reminds me of like a… Jake?? from season 45, where he is just constantly shown losing and by the end of the season is kind of just a bit of a laughing stock in win equity. To me, I feel like there’s going to be little upside, maybe he votes correctly, gets arrogant, and gets voted out immediately after. Maybe he survives, but currently the edit doesn’t really make us root for him, it just makes us be like “oh look at poor Ozzy who can’t seem to get it together” in almost a joke-y sort of way. This doesn’t feel very winner like to me. Chance of winning - 1% (-1% from last episode)

Rizo - Yikers. You know it’s bad when the casual audience I watch this with begin flaming him and being like, “stop trying to act so smart when you were given the advantage, you did nothing for it”. To me, Rizo is being set up for a huge downfall. I have no clue if it will happen next episode (which it feels like there is a LOT of hints, like in the trailer for episode 5, that the Charlie/Rizo feud will come to a head), but Genevieve seems to have some foreshadowing towards outwitting or getting this idol from Rizo. Ultimately, I think he could potentially survive till later, learn his lesson and actually grow, and then get sniped out of the game, or he could be the cocky kid who flies way, WAY too close to the sun and gets out early. Either way, I have major doubts on him winning with such consistent negativity. Chance of winning - 1% (-1.5% from last episode)

Cirie - This episode Cirie gets 0 confessionals, a really rough look, especially when we still don’t get too much set up on her alliance structure on this new tribe in the episode prior. To be honest, Cirie’s edit feels like a legend that returns to the game but doesn’t really thrive but they give her content to make sure her last return (season 50) is not too damaging to her legacy. I just am sad, she couldn’t get anything this episode? Not one thing? I think Cirie at least has some backing with her advantage, but we still haven’t seen much of a storyline develop from her. Because of the overall lack of depth in what a winner should have by now, she lands here. Chance of winning - 1% (-2% from last episode)

Aubry - This one is probably one of the most subjective ones, but to me Aubry is the clear not-winner of the Genevieve v Aubry situation. She just feels constantly undermined by Gen, even when she makes the funny face at her, which did produce some laughs, it feels like Gen just comes in with the hammer of finding the idol. Aubry’s edit feels clunky, and kind of puzzling, it feels like she herself is stumbling to make sense of the game, when it feels like the edit makes it pretty clear where she stands. To me, I think her lack of concreteness and lack of being a reliable narrator feels a bit hard to swallow. I actually think her tribe probably doesn’t go to tribal this round, so I see this Aubry v Gen thing pushing forward even longer, but that being said it just feels like everything points to Aubry losing this war, and even if she does win, I feel like she’s not set up for anything after it. Chance of winning - 1% (-1.5% from last episode)

There’s A World… I Guess? Tier

1.5 to 4.5% chance to win

Charlie - Charlie for all intents and purposes should not be this high. He’s gotten weird, clunky content for the first two episodes with a barely there storyline, but the problem is that despite that he still feels more intentional than half the cast. To me, his edit seems almost like Season 47 Genevieve with a slow start leading to this massive tribal, and while that’s great for a potential amount of longevity, it feels still a bit too lacking in depth to be a winner. Charlie’s whole story has been in opposition to Rizo, and we can see this semi-blurry post-Rizo storyline, it feels way less obvious and foreshadowed than the people following. This could very well be a smokescreen like Mike in which, hey, maybe Rizo does idol Charlie out of the game. I could see multiple avenues, with the smallest, tiniest glimmer of a late game push. Honestly, his winner chances speak more to others dropping so much rather than his stocks rising significantly. Chance of winning - 1.5% (+.5% from last episode)

Dee - If Season 50 has a UTR woman winning, it’s Dee. She is given consistent presence in some way every episode, and while it’s still only 4 (again, why does Zac have a tying amount of confessionals to one of the most legendary s41-s49 players?), what Dee lacks in quantity she does someone make up for in quality. The problem really isn’t with Dee, it’s just the fact that so many others have way better, more well-rounded storylines, that it feels like Dee is meant to be a big pre-merge or early merge out rather than a big late game threat. But, unlike the people above on this blog, I actually can see a potential story line for her. Chance of winning - 1.5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Coach - Eh. Right now if you asked me who are the two most likely final tribal council losers, I’d be pointing at Coach. He just feels like he’s set up to have longevity, he seems well-liked, he seems like he has a story line to follow, but he also massively deviates from that storyline. He becomes a bit of a play thing in the edit, where he gets jokes poked at him and overly dramatic music playing when he’s trying to be poetic. It’s hilarious, don’t get me wrong, and I think we are in some way meant to root for him a little bit, but I don’t think in a truly serious way. The season could shift dramatically and Coach can give us some seriously good content, I absolutely could see some way for him to win, but right now he feels too much of a caricature versus a real person to be winning this season. Chance of winning - 2.5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Jonathan - Oh Jonathan, how the mighty have fallen. He is given such great content in the first two episodes, then almost instantly disappears from the face of the earth. He is given nothing, nothing, for this entire swap, and I just hate that for him. I think he had immense winner potential, but I’m now seeing it morph a bit. We are constantly fed lines about how strong Jonathan is, and Jonathan himself hyped up his strategy. To me, he feels like the penultimate dragon. A dragon is typically the final boss you need to beat to win the game, and while Jonathan could be that, I moreso see him as the early to mid merge dragon that sees a bit danger spike and will get eliminated because he just feels like such a huge winner contender early on. Is there a world Jonathan comes back? Yes, but it feels like it’s gearing to go a different direction. Chance of winning - 3.5% (-2.5% from last episode)

Emily - Our queen of chaos, the financial analyst Emily Flippen, lands at #5. I am so puzzled on her. Like, seriously. I think she probably is one of the least likely people to win because of her utter chaos levels and how wild she is portrayed, but I also think this could be a fun way to edit a winner, where she regains control and establishes a dominant group at merge to run away with it. Like, let’s be honest, that probably won’t happen. What’s most likely? We will enjoy Emily causing carnage for a few more episodes before she ultimately goes home in a burst of flames, and we are all going to love it. But like, the what if of a potential chaos winner would be hilarious and a great way to highlight that dynamic character. Chance of winning - 4% (-2% from last episode)

Colby - Remember how I said Coach could be a final tribal loser? Well, you’re reading about my second most likely prediction here. Colby is given solid content, and I think solid is such a good word for it. I also love a lot of what he says. There’s a level of complexity and depth, especially in the Zac Brown segment, where I forget exactly what he says, but he talks about the theme or message he got from this and how he can apply it to his Survivor journey, and when I heard that my ears just perked up. It’s a classic winner sign, but I also just don’t get that vibe from his edit? It feels good, but not great. I feel like we see over and over this message of celebration, and I feel like the winner’s edit is really going to embody that. While Colby could technically reach that, it feels a bit too dull to be in the top of the top tier. Chance of winning - 4.5% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Main Contenders Tier

20 to 33% chance to win

This tier, composed of three people, has a total of 76.5/100% chance of winning this season. That means 16 others share 23.5% chance. I strongly believe our winner is one of the three below.

Rick - I mean, I did jinx it a bit. I believe Rick’s edit was near flawless prior to tonight’s episode, where in this episode, Rick got nothing. And I mean, like, nothing. It felt jarring as I saw Vatu go into tribal discussions and I started panicking because, how does my #1 contender get 0 content? Was I wrong? Did I mislead all of you guys? Then, I took a second to breathe. Rick’s content prior to this was phenomenal, and this tribe he is on got literally scraps from the editing team, especially due to the extended reward. I can’t bump Rick up in winning chances, this episode did him no favors. That being said, I want to extend some grace here. Is there a world in which a winner gets a zero confessional episode? Yes, it’s happened many times before, but it would be a very very rare oddity for a post-90 minute episode season. I hate that I now have to second guess my original pick, but unfortunately I can’t keep him as #1 after this. Chance of winning - 20% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Christian - The question I’ve talked to multiple people about has been simple: “If Christian does somehow miraculously win this season, would this be his edit?” I’ve started to just say yes now. It is drowned in content, in strategy, in humor, in wit, in his personality which draws people in. This is Christian. No matter what, he is a massive character, fan favorite for this season. That’s the tricky part. In other seasons, the fan favorites that didn’t win had an easily recognizable flaw I could distinguish as the reason the winner would ultimately take it, but right now I have a hard time finding that in Christian. In full honesty, 1st v 2nd is a huge shot in the dark for me right now, but I have made my prediction, and it’s time I stick with it. Will Christian win? It’s entirely possible, and I am confident no matter what he’s going far. Chance of winning - 23.5% (+5.5% from last episode)

Genevieve - A new #1. This is a super risky pick, Genevieve is locked in a massive feud right now where it will almost certainly reach a peak. Her edit is genuinely very good and has every hallmark for a potential winner, a set storyline right off the bat that is strong and relates to the season’s theme, consistent check-ins and making sure people remember who she is, her seeming like the more important character of the dueling players, a bit of pre-merge danger, and, the one thing I just cannot get out of my head, is the scenes involving Kyle, Genevieve, and Q. Kyle tells them episode 1 that someone on Vatu will win the game. Q later says it again, saying one of them has to win it. But then, Kyle specifically goes to Gen and tells her to win it, to which she says she will. Is it too obvious? Maybe?? Or is it just the hallmark of a celebratory season, where we watch the woman who promises the medevac’ed former winner that she will continue on for him. She gets so many references to how she needs to play the next “x” amount of days to get to the win. Everything feels so perfect. I can’t not put her here right now. Chance of winning - 33% (+14% from last episode)

A LOT to digest. Thanks for reading, and as always, feel free to comment your thoughts and/or subscribe to not miss a post! I hope you enjoyed my thoughts!

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EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

Before anything, a moment of silence to reflect on the loss of our chaos gremlin Q.

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Ok, let’s talk about our fallen friend. Unfortunately, I had an inkling Q was in trouble. (Check out this blog post from a few days ago where I talk about everyone’s chances of surviving the swap!) In that post, I ranked Q in the bottom tier, which meant most likely to go home. He had shown a lot of like… actual savviness on his last tribe, but there was this sinking feeling he’d be going. I think Q was overall a solid character, and honestly he was surprisingly strategic despite his reputation as a chaotic player. I loved how he went, and Mike’s “you told me to do this” actually had everyone in the room laughing. Overall, I’m happy with Q’s trajectory this season, and he’s someone I feel like we could definitely see again in the future.

Now. We’ve seen a lot of people with consistently solid content (Savannah and Q) go home, and I feel like the next few boots may potentially end up leading to some of the quieter folks heading home. That being said, let’s head to our final segment of our reflection, which is odds of people winning, going from smallest to largest chance.

If You Win, I’m Shocked Tier

.1% to 1% Chance of Winning

Tiffany - Our under edited legend. After 3 episodes, our girl Tiffany has gotten precisely 2 confessionals. Yikes. I actually think for the first time Tiffany now has some sort of storyline, namely her relationship with Aubry and this slight competition with Genevieve, but this needed to be a breakout episode for Tiffany. And… well technically she did breakout, it’s just because she got something. But honestly, she’s relegated to the support character of Dee/Kamilla, and now the support character of Aubry. I love her energy, but I think that energy doesn’t have the longest stay on this season. Chance of winning - .1% (+ / - 0% from last episode)

Angelina - Angelina got solid content, wahoo! I’m glad to see her talk, but if we’re being honest, there is very little we can work with in setting up Angelina’s story. We see her discuss how she wants to approach the game differently, but this episode, which could absolutely have a lot of her own lens and perspective, is largely told through Mike, Christian, Emily, and Q. She seems to be a classic support character in this story, and while that doesn’t mean she can’t go far, (which, honestly I have no clue where she will land placement wise), I am fairly confident Angelina won’t be taking home that $1,000,000. Chance of winning - .5% (+.1% from last episode)

Kamilla - Kamilla actually had some solid screen time this episode and was the hero for her challenge, and was shown very much discussing her past season and how it related. Great stuff overall! That being said, I can’t help it that there is just nothing here on her relationships. We just know so little on her standing in the game, and so when her content could be slightly tweaked to be pretty solid, and it isn’t, it just seems rough for her own odds. Could she go far? Yes! I think she definitely could, but winning is looking rough. Chance of winning - .5% (+ / - 0% from last episode)

Joe - Joe had a rough episode last time, it was pretty negatively leaning, and so I was hoping Joe could get some good content on forming relationships or some strategy, and we just get something really bland and basic out of this episode from him. I think last episode nearly shot his winner chances, but this one? On a swap? Getting so little after needing to get a lot? Yeah, I really don’t see it. The only reason he isn’t at the bottom is his somewhat consistent visibility. Chance of winning - .5% (-.5% from last episode)

Stephanie - Yikers. This was a bad episode for Stephanie. I had a feeling episode one she was going to be a support character, and a lot of people had her much higher, and I think this episode really supports my theory. She just gets so little (in fact, pretty much gets the least of anyone on this tribe). I think she could’ve absolutely gotten some underdog content here, but she just feels a bit too one note in this environment. I have a feeling next episode we’ll get a bit more of Stephanie, but in my opinion, especially after having nothing last week, this week just felt like a nail in the coffin for her. There is a world she gets a major underdog arc from here, but even so I feel like the farthest she goes is a final tribal loser, and since this is a winners ranking, not a ‘who has the biggest chance of going far ranking’, she’s gonna land here. Chance of winning - .9% (-1% from last episode)

Charlie - OK. Some real Charlie content coming out here, and I love the personality we are getting from him. Despite him being a muted presence this season, it was really cool to see him be a bit larger of a personality. In my opinion, I see Charlie going some relative distance, probably merge, but to me this feels like Charlie’s big storyline is going to be this conflict with Rizo. We see him actually do a solid amount and this Maria flashbacks is almost presented in a comical way. That being said, Charlie doesn’t even really tell his story, Rizo does. I feel like Charlie is the top of this tier of people who I just can’t see winning. Of all of them, he is the one to get solid content each week, but it is far, far away from the content the top half of the contenders get. Chance of winning - 1% (+ / - 0% from last episode)

I Don’t Really See It Tier

1.5% to 2.5% Chance of Winning

Chrissy - I’m so upset. AAAH. In my blog post on what every player needs to do well in episode two, if this storyline was there, I would’ve been over the moon. Chrissy is giving a really positive tone, addresses her past season, tells more about her story, and is shown in a really beautiful light. I love this look from her, and I think we are actually in for an awesome arc from her. That being said, this ranking is about potential winners, and I think if we had gotten any sort of confessional from her last week she would be WAY higher in my rankings. If she’s a winner, I see this storyline of her not fitting in in episode 2, then episode 3 being this self realization, beautiful story on her past, almost a transition to her next stage of playing. Unfortunately we don’t get that, and it would’ve been so easy to do that, so I feel like her placement here makes sense. Is there a small world though? Technically yes. Chance of winning - 1.5% (+.5% from last episode)

Dee - I almost switched Dee and Chrissy - but that would require editing all of my charts, but I think they’re pretty close in their chances of winning, so we’ll keep it here. Every time after an episode, I can’t help but just sigh and put a check mark next to Dee being the big pre-merge boot. She gets consistent content, but it is so, so low. It feels like the bare minimum to be a possible contender, and to me this feels moreso just the editing team giving Dee respect for being a good former winner, but having a lackluster second run. I want to be able to put Dee higher, but we get so little from her each time, and I just hate that we get so little relationship development from her, which tends to be really important for winners to have. There’s nothing inherently wrong about her edit, but there’s nothing really great either. Chance of winning - 1.5% (-.5% from last episode)

Ozzy - Everyone has Ozzy so high in their rankings and I just feel like I’m watching a different show. Ozzy to me feels like such a support character. His episode one was fine, though even then it felt just kinda negatively portrayed. But his next two episodes had him kinda just being in the backseat to Cirie and Emily. This past episode he kind of just feels like an afterthought, and we don’t really see him talk until after the immunity challenge, which I feel like for a swap especially is a bad sign. This is not even to discuss the episode 1 confessional curse (whoever talks the most never gets past early merge at best). Overall, Ozzy to me is absolutely a big character, but he doesn’t stand out as a winner contender at all. Everyone above has these developed storylines, and I feel like I can see some world in which they win. Ozzy would probably be even lower for me if it weren’t for the slight peer pressure all around me. Chance of winning - 2% (-2% from last episode)

Rizo - Yikes. Talk about a fall from grace. Rizo keeps on getting these moments of negativity time after time, and I just don’t like it. His storyline continues, and I actually do really enjoy it. I think there could even be some redemption here where he learns to grow and be a bit better, but his story feels way more like a growth arc than a winner arc. Here’s the thing, when someone gets negativity in an episode, that is one thing. But if we, the audience, come out of an episode being like “oh gosh this guy kinda stinks”, that’s a bad note. He comes off as a bit cocky (r-i-z-g-o-d baby) and then we see Charlie as the way more appealing figure. Compare this to Genevieve and Aubry, who both are sympathetic in some way and we don’t really go away from their feud disliking either of them. So like, yes he gets a lot of solid content, but it seems too overly done where I actually could see him going when he ends up at tribal (which honestly I think his tribe will win a lot so I don’t expect it any time soon). Chance of winning - 2.5% (-3.5% from last episode)

Coach - Coach gets a much more toned down edit this time, which is still marked with bits of humor, especially in his communication with Chrissy, but there is some level of depth there. He gets this strategy on how he wants to help, or coach, if I may, her in some way. But that is kind of the extent of his presence here. And honestly? I’m ok with it. He had two pretty big episodes, so a cooldown was needed, and what he got on this swap was him checking in on his relationships, which is a huge plus. So, largely positive, why have him ranked at the bottom of the top half? Well, pretty simply, his past couple episodes still have him as pretty over the top and one dimensional, and while I do think the relationship check-in was great, his confessional still had this goofy energy of someone who may very well go far, but isn’t supposed to be taken too too seriously. I see a long road ahead for Coach, I just feel like it won’t end in gold. Chance of winning - 2.5% (+.5% from last episode)

Aubry - Aubry is so interesting, like I kinda just love the way her edit feels. (SIDE NOTE: her edgic for this episode should be MORM3, it will be fixed on next week’s chart.) She gets this overly harsh negativity from Genevieve, but it is balanced by Tiffany’s positive outlook on her. The real problem is that I just don’t see Aubry winning this war. Aubry’s sidekick is Tiffany, who is so wildly under edited, and usually the winner has allies that feel at least a bit present. Now, is there a world she boots Genevieve? Yes, actually. I think the odds of it have gone up since episode 2, and I do see a potential storyline here, but one thing I need to remember is to look at every person’s storyline holistically, and Aubry’s is like almost entirely focused on Genevieve, while Gen’s feels more all encompassing. I have a really hard time placing Aubry, so we’ll just… slide her here? I guess? Chance of winning - 2.5% (+.5% from last episode)

I See A World Tier

3% to 7% Chance of Winning

Cirie - Cirie is in this tier, but just barely. She gets great content, is shown as a big threat (some pre-merge danger isn’t too bad after all!), and is shown trying to make some connections. That being said, this is probably my most controversial one, because I just don’t see it. I have thought back on each person’s arc, and the more I think about episode 1, the more I hate it for Cirie. She is consistently shown later than a lot of others every episode, especially episode 2 where it was post-challenge she got her first one. The more I think, the more she drops. Now - unlike people in the tiers prior, I actually truly see a world in which she could win, it’s just significantly less than the people further down this list. Chance of winning - 3% (-1% from last episode)

Colby - Colby has a pretty major drop this episode, and it makes me sad. His first episode was so fantastic, but the more episodes that happen, the more I think he was a victor of pure circumstance. He’s now barely checked in with us for two episodes now, and especially for a swap, I wanted to see some extra relationship building, but it felt like other people took more of a grasp on it. The further he goes, the more I actually can legitimately see him as a losing finalist. And, since that’s not winning, down the rankings he goes. Chance of winning - 4.5% (-4.5% from last episode)

Jonathan - I am battling on who to put higher, and I actually feel like it’s pretty even between him and the next person, but Jonathan is just a funkier edit. His first two episodes were fantastic, but I also don’t think they warranted a cooldown like he had this episode. We don’t see him really develop any connections, and his one confessional was so short I almost didn’t even notice it. Will his tribe probably be just winning out? I kinda see it, it just gives me that type of energy that they’ll be just straight up safe. But we saw plenty of other characters developed, like Cirie, Rick, Charlie, Rizo, and he just sorta fell by the wayside here. Is it a death knell? No, but it definitely isn’t as great as it could be. Chance of winning - 6% (-2% from last episode)

Emily - So, like… I had said Emily felt like a supporting character and I needed her to break out. So… yay for that?? Yeah, this episode for Emily was huge. But I don’t know if it’s good or bad. We see her analyze her position, make tons of accurate social reads, and really stand out as like the most important player this episode, all great! But… we also see her as a bit chaotic, losing some trust with Christian, and all that ensued after. The question is, what does this mean for her chances of winning? I just have no earthly idea. I can’t even tell if she’s going to end up making merge or not. Because of all of these question marks, Emily’s going to remain in a nice, safe, comfortable, unchanging spot. Chance of winning - 6% (+ / - 0% from last episode)

Mike - After a pretty muted last episode, Mike comes out swinging, and it is so fun. He makes everyone just crack up each time he talks at my house, and I love the energy he brings. He was also shown as a big mover and pusher this vote, and gets pretty much no heat, it feels very reminiscent of the last time he played as well. I think Mike is an enigma of a character. He’s a celebrity, he’s going to get attention, and when he does something, of course they are going to highlight it. The question though does remain, how will Mike’s season turn out? I see potential, he’s done quite a bit of work, but I also just feel like he was always going to be a big figure this season no matter what. Absolutely a contender after this episode. Chance of winning - 7% (+ / - 0% from last episode)

The Contenders

18% to 20% Chance of Winning

These remaining three people I’m putting all my chips into. With a combined 57% chance to win, I feel really good one of these three will be our winner this season.

Christian - I keep flipping back and forth in my head on Christian, but luckily it is only between two things. 1) Is Christian our fan favorite? Does he get out right towards the end, but he does such a great job with Rick that he’s edited in just the most human, beautiful light? Or 2) Is Christian our winner? Some people say it feels so obvious, but to that I also add, if Christian wins season 50, the LEGENDS season, how else would he be edited but in this miraculous way? I love his edit, it feels really well-rounded and really secure. It’s a very tight race between our top 3, but I am leaning towards him being that fan favorite just everrrr so slightly, so he lands as contender #3. (Also, for this episode, Christian feels both OTT and CP, which almost made me give him a LGL [larger than life] edgic tone, which is extremely rare and most people haven’t even heard of it, but I just went CP because there was so much strategy and dramatics in his storyline) Chance of winning - 18% (+6% from last episode)

Genevieve - This episode was. so. weird. Genevieve gets really solid content, talks about her strategy, forms relationships, but also gets some heat from Tiffany. If this was almost any other player, I’d be very concerned, but we absolutely see a huge trend of winners having some heat or danger put in their way, and if Gen wins this season, this storyline is absolutely necessary to tell. This could very much be an extended ‘put the winner in some realm of danger and uncertainty’. I am absolutely unsure of how this goes. Is there a world Gen goes pre-merge?? Yes. Definitely. But her edit just also feels so well-rounded. I think there’s so many questions on where Genevieve ends up, so I’m going to keep her high up here for now. Chance of winning - 19% (+7% from last episode)

Rick - Devens gets a smaller cooldown episode, but like also still gets a ton of strategy. Yeah, Rick just checks every box. It’s hard because I just have nothing more to add. His edit just feels flawless, we get some positivity, some negativity, we’re meant to root for him and Christian, he feels developed, he has a storyline. Nothing this episode gave me any concern for him, so he stays in a comfortable first as my guess for the person most likely to win season 50. Chance of winning - 20% (+6% from last episode)

Whew! What a read, thanks for taking the time to peruse through my thoughts!

Again, these take a few hours to write, and I never use any AI within my writing, so I appreciate all the kind words y’all send my way. If you enjoyed what I’ve put down, feel free to subscribe, and we’ll see you next week!

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CILA TRIBE

Players:

Charlie (OG Kalo)

Cirie (OG Cila)

Dee (OG Kalo)

Jonathan (OG Kalo)

Kamilla (OG Kalo)

Rick (OG Cila)

Rizo (OG Vatu)

So, on first glance, things look rough. 4 players are from the original Kalo tribe, leaving Cirie, Rick, and Rizo in a bit of a pickle. (And to even further hammer it in, only 2 players from the pre-season 40 era) That being said, I’d be shocked if things were that simple. Cirie was shown as a big mover and shaker, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that intrigues the likes of Jonathan, an old-school type new-schooler who has already shown some hesitation towards Dee. Though, to be honest, I also just don’t see this tribe going to tribal too much. Jonathan, Dee, Kamilla, and Charlie especially stand out in terms of physical or puzzle challenges, and their well-roundedness should fair them well (especially if they can get through the first vote and can then bench one of the weaker challenge players after that).

Who are the winners and losers here? Well… I see the major winner being Jonathan. With his edit so far, he seems like he’s going to be a big figure moving forward, and I have an inkling his decision could dictate how this tribe goes alliance wise. Edit wise, I think the rest of the Kalo’s are in trouble, as Rizo, Rick, and partially (with some hesitancy) Cirie have been set up for some longevity.

KALO TRIBE

Players:

Aubry (OG Vatu)

Chrissy (OG Kalo)

Coach (OG Kalo)

Colby (OG Vatu)

Genevieve (OG Vatu)

Joe (OG Cila)

Tiffany (OG Kalo)

Now this? This is an interesting tribe. I’m terrified these guys may be going to tribal a lot, especially based on the editing, there’s just a lot of tension already within this group that I can absolutely see explode on this tribe. We’ve already seen this built up conflict between Aubry and Genevieve, and so the worry really is that it comes to a head here. Who will win? I’m actually extremely unsure. I think as viewers we’re meant to like Genevieve, and her storyline just seems so set up to go far and have a pay-off. That being said, Aubry is definitely being shown outwitting Genevieve at points and is shown as somewhat sympathetic in her own right. I do also think there’s a huge chance neither one is in trouble, and Genevieve wins the war later on and this is a ‘why Aubry gets voted out’ storyline later because she didn’t do it here. I think Tiffany is also in a huge bunch of trouble. She is largely invisible, and I could definitely see a route in which there’s a double tribal and she just gets sent home in a pretty unanimous vote, and the other tribal is way more interesting, and that’s why her edit is so nonexistent currently.

So, winners? Losers? I think Coach is probably a winner here, and maybe Chrissy as an ally, but we’ll see. I think Colby’s also set up for a lot of longevity, but everyone else is definitely in the danger zone. Joe is the lone Cila and framed very negatively last time, though it’s hard for me to imagine him going so early. Meanwhile Aubry and Gen have their conflict, with Tiffany’s lack of an edit seeming like an early pre-merge quiet elimination.

VATU TRIBE

Players:

Angelina (OG Vatu)

Christian (OG Cila)

Emily (OG Cila)

Mike (OG Kalo)

Ozzy (OG Cila)

Q (OG Vatu)

Stephanie (OG Vatu)

This tribe also seems like it is destined to be heading to tribal a bit, but I can’t lie, seeing the three David vs Goliath players in Angelina, Christian, and Mike together is so exciting. I think it spells a huge win for all three, and unless there is a super crazy blindside all of them feel relatively secure. I actually think, as mentioned before, there could be some double (or even triple??) tribals in the future, and if Tiff is the ‘easy’, not messy tribal, this one could definitely be the interesting one. As much as I love Q’s edit, I also think there’s a suspiciously high chance this tribe could backfire on him. Ozzy also screams potential big pre-merge boot, and while he has some longevity with his Cirie storyline, I think there is definitely some warning signs flashing. Stephanie is a huge question mark here, as someone who had a lot of content episode 1, then nothing episode 2, her edit remains so volatile it’s really hard to predict what her situation looks like.

So, winners and losers. Christian and Mike just seem to be in great spots. Is there potential for a gang up on Mike as the lone Kalo, who has all their members still? Yes. But I also see the world of seeing three Cila and three Vatu after that and everyone wanting Mike on their side. I think Emily also is in a solid spot, but everyone else is definitely in a blurry spot, especially Ozzy, Q, and Stephanie.

Biggest Winners to Losers

Finally, just to wrap it up, let’s make some predictions. Who is making it through this swap? First off, we have no clue how long it’ll be, but my hope is maybe Final 16-15, so around 5-6 eliminations. Here’s the brackets:

Most Likely Surviving:

• Christian

• Emily

• Mike

• Colby

• Jonathan

• Rick

Probably Surviving:

• Angelina

• Joe

• Coach

• Chrissy

• Rizo

• Cirie

In Danger:

• Aubry

• Genevieve

• Dee

• Charlie

Most Likely Vote Outs:

• Tiffany

• Q

• Ozzy

• Kamilla

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EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

As mentioned above, I had a feeling this episode will tell a lot about the trajectory of the season, and I’m almost willing to say that half the cast I am 100% confident is not winning. Will I say it? No, because truly stranger winning edits have occurred, but we’ll be breaking down winning chances and how it relates to my previous post (Check it out here!) on what each player needs in episode 2 to have a shot at winning. That being said, let’s first talk about our third boot - Savannah. I had a feeling her big edit was more of a grand send off in episode 1, and it happened. She had solid content, I even thought if she squeezed through this she had a chance to make it far because her episode 1, while a bit mixed in tone, had a lot of weight to it. Unfortunately the winner curse struck, and even though she went home early, she still came out of the episode looking strong, and I don’t think there’s any doubt she was a deserving winner.

Now, let’s go player by player, from least, to most, chance to win, and talk about why.

Yikes Tier

(.1% to 1% chance of winning)

Tiffany - Dang Tiff, what’s going on? 1 confessional in about 3-4 hours of content is rough, and she was seriously invisible this episode. This isn’t even a question of like ‘did she get some outside context?’ and like, no, I don’t know if we even heard her talk. This is so bizarre, but I am nearly positive there is no way this is a way survivor would ever consider editing their winner. I guess she could do a Genevieve from S47 and get a massive content boost episode three to be a contender, but I heavily heavily doubt it. In the post I made on what everyone needs to win, I listed a lot of things she needed. She got, literally, none of it. I’m sorry Tiff, you deserve more. Chance of winning - 0.1% (-.9% from last episode)

Angelina - I’m devastated once again. 0 confessionals from one of the biggest content givers in the last 20 seasons is diabolical. We get some negativity thrown at her, and we don’t even get to hear any response or comment from her the whole episode. I said in my last post Angelina needed to talk about her story and show which relationships she’s developing, and we got none of that (or maybe the opposite - other people dictated how she had a lack of relationship strength). This sucks, because while I thought she lacked a chance to win in episode now, this felt like the nail was fully hammered in on her chances. Chance of winning - 0.4% (-.6% from last episode)

Kamilla - Our third player with 0 confessionals, and this is rough. The Kamilla/Dee/Tiffany trio has a combined… 1 confessional this episode. Yikes. Kyle went home, Kamilla’s number one ally in their season, and we do see some talk from Kamilla about it, but it felt so brushed over in the moment. I was really hoping we’d see some growth, or at least a slightly bigger episode, but we got really nothing. I unfortunately don’t see the longest longevity from Kamilla after that, and her winning odds reflect that. Chance of winning - 0.5% (-.5% from last episode)

Chrissy - From my last post, “Another great thing would be if we see Chrissy in a bit more of a positive light. So far, we’ve seen her talking about being cutthroat and others painting her as a target, but from what I know Chrissy has an awesome story, and if we see that side of her in the upcoming episode or two, my odds of her winning would shoot up dramatically.”… well that’s unfortunate. Chrissy was actually shown being a mom, and having these caring attributes, but it was narrated by Dee and Charlie who constantly adding in negative comments and used that to talk about voting her out. AND, somehow even worse, she got 0 confessionals. WHY? She gets some visibility, so I guess it’s better than Tiffany, and at least her episode 1 wasn’t super awful, so while her winning odds aren’t great, they barely beat out the ones above. Chance of winning - 1% (-2% from last episode)

Joe - Oh boy. Joe. What happened. This is quite literally the last thing I expected from you. He started out with a fine episode 1, but I wanted more strategy from him. I actually thought his relationships were starting to develop and to see some of that would also be cool, but we got… literally the opposite. Joe is basically framed as this loyal guy - but in an almost annoying way where he stops the game from being fun. After S48, he was like, THE hero. This episode he gets downgraded and framed as annoying, and his confessionals only feed into this warped version of him that Emily, Christian, and Rick feed into. How is this the same Joe? Either way, this is a bad, bad look. I thought after I posted episode 1 that I had potentially underestimated Joe, but I think now I overestimated him. Could he win still? I do see a world in which he gets some redemption, but he was framed so negatively it’s hard to overlook it. Chance of winning - 1% (-1% from last episode)

Charlie - Charlie, oh gosh, what is this season going to end up like for you?? He’s kind of got this bizarre edit where episode 1 had a bunch of little jokes and humor from him, and this episode had him talk a little on his last season, though it also didn’t set up much of a storyline for him. Does he have some potential? Weirdly, I actually think he could go some ways, but I also don’t see many winning lanes for him. We know Charlie, but we don’t really know what’s going on for him this season. I feel like he tops out at a mid-merger, but at least he didn’t get 0 confessionals, which nearly 20% of the cast received. So, I guess there’s that? But still, an alarmingly middling episode again for the Swiftie. Chance of winning - 1% (+/- 0% from last episode)

I Don’t See It Tier

(2% to 4% chance of winning)

Coach - A bigger fall from grace from good ole’ Coach, and there seems to be a good reason. Coach feels like a bit of a one-dimensional character. He gets loads of content (yay!), but it’s important that contenders is for winning chances, not just about who is most likely to make it far (which I do think he can do!). However, right now he’s just being shown as the old guy, the guy who once more can’t seem to figure out his own perception or how he acts (oh no. did I just… agree with Ozzy??). Do I think there are redeeming moments… actually yes! He is still given his own time to talk about his strategy, and I could be misinterpreting his OTT-ness as more negative rather than it seeming more lighthearted. That being said, I lean towards my original view being right, and so unfortunately Coach’s odds take a bit of a fall. Chance of winning - 2% (-2% from last episode)

Aubry - Ok, so we see Aubry getting a lot this episode. Her bag gets searched but… whoops, she gets the advantage right after. I’m wondering if the editing was mixed and Genevieve noticed this after she got it but Aubry had hidden it elsewhere. Anywho, my odds for Aubry (overall she’s 8th to last where last time she was 5th to last), but I don’t want to increase her odds too much yet. She does get some actually really solid content about how she’s played before, and I think the viewers are meant to like Aubry here, the only problem being I feel like we’re also meant to really like Genevieve. I just can’t understand the episode 1 imbalance if Aubry wins the war on Genevieve, because Gen’s edit has been so spotless. Can Aubry win? She’s the first one on the list where I actually wouldn’t be absolutely scrambling to understand how she wins if she ultimately does get the gold, but so many others just feel stronger, so her odds stay low. Chance of winning - 2% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Stephanie - Our final 0 confessionalist for this episode, and every bone in my body wanted to plummet her to the very bottom. 0 confessionals? That’s it for most people, you don’t come back from that. I think I was more justified in not having Stephanie top 4, or 5, or 8, which I know some people were confused on, but she felt like a very much support role in episode 1, and this episode she was very much invisible. She got a lot of solid set-up for longevity (in fact, right now I’m kind of thinking she or Colby could be a final tribe loser [though I’m also thinking Colby still could win as well]), but because I am thinking that, it also means I don’t think she’s winning, so down go her chances. I think she had a lot she could’ve said this episode, but she didn’t, and for that, the verdict. Chance of winning - 2% (-3% from last episode ) ← the biggest fall for anyone by the way!

Dee - Dee is like… a slightly more nuanced Charlie. She is getting such little content, like 2 confessionals over a span of 4 hours? From one of the most impressive winners in the last however many years. That sucks. The one good note is that the confessionals are good, her content is setting up storylines and they do have some meaning. I just also hate this. In season 45, Dee’s edit, while slightly smaller compared to the big figureheads of the confessionals that season, carried a lot of extra hidden gems on a rewatch that showed so much potential. Unfortunately, I don’t see that same magic that I noticed so many seasons ago. Could this be leading up to a big episode where her visibility explodes? Sure. Is it more likely ending in her making a move on Chrissy and then getting voted out for being such a huge threat? I don’t know, it feels more likely. Chance of winning - 2% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Ozzy - Y’all know by my previous posts I’m not a huge fan of Ozzy, and his episode one felt so overblown that I felt pretty confident he was heading towards a bit of a flameout. And in full honesty? I still believe that, but I also can’t hide that I think if Ozzy was to win this season, this wasn’t the worst episode out there. I actually think the edit this episode supported Ozzy a bit more in the Coach v Ozzy battle going on, and I think he’s shown making the right reads. He’s in a lot of pre-merge danger, but that can also be a good sign of a winner (though usually it’s a little less dominant in their storyline). Again, could Ozzy be the winner? I actually see the potential, though I would’ve liked to see him give more insight into how he’s going to get out of his current social standing. That all being said, his episode? Far better than a lot of others, so up the ranks he goes! Chance of winning - 4% (+2% from last episode)

Cirie - Hmmm… what to do about Cirie. I’m actually less high than others are for her after this episode, and let’s discuss why. First, she actually makes little to no mention of her situation last episode, which I don’t love. She actually has her first confessional I believe after they lose the challenge, so she is absent for the first 2/3 of the episode. When she appears, she has somehow stumbled into solid relationships with Emily, Rick, Christian, etc., but it really is only barely touched on, which surprised me because I think if she made some expert social maneuvers it would be highlighted. That being said, she’s given some solid praise by Ozzy and is shown as a big part of this vote (and somehow she has like literally zero threat of going home - that’s bonkers work from her!). Again, I just feel like a Cirie win would look so much more dominant, and I just feel like the center the show wants us to focus on is the alliance of Rick/Christian/Emily over Cirie/Ozzy, so she lands in a respectable middle tier. Chance of winning - 4% (+2% from last episode)

I See Potential Tier

(6% to 7% chance of winning)

Rizo - Rizo is the funkiest edit, like by far. What is going on?? He has so much weirdly negative and positive content. He gets strategy, he gets a quote saying he’s going far, but he’s also portrayed as a lazy, kinda spoiled kid by Q (and I know some people say Q is an unreliable narrator, but I think that’s more bias from S46, Q has been shown as kinda a strategist this season). It’s weird because Rizo has these big waves, and I actually think he does have longevity. If he starts shifting to more positive content in the next couple episodes, I definitely see the vision. Chance of winning - 6% (-1% from last episode)

Emily - If Emily’s alliance was not SO dominant on her tribe in taking up content, she would easily be at the very tip of the top of winner contenders. She has a lot of solid content, set up storylines, and we actively hear where she’s at in the game. The problem is that her alliance mates have such good edits that she ends up a bit more overshadowed. There is a secondary problem too - Emily’s obsession with voting Ozzy. It’s not much of an obsession per se, but she rarely mentions wanting to vote the person who actually goes home, and it’s something minor, but it is important that Emily is the person usually shown not getting her way. Is she upset by it? It’s not portrayed that way - and so I think that keeps her potential victory alive, but it’s also not the best sign either. Chance of winning - 6% (+1% from last episode)

Q - If you had told me I’d be giving Q actually reasonable edgic 2 episodes in a row I wouldn’t believe you, but it is sort of true? Q has been such an interesting character where he is given a lot of content. Last episode, I was saying a good chunk of what he got was circumstantial, and that we needed to see him get something more definitive to prove that he could be a contender. And this episode? He… actually kind of did? He showed a lot of strategy in trying to pull in Rizo about his vote being taken, and then provides a much more full scope view of other personalities like Rizo/Angelina on his tribe. It was killer. Could Q… be a winner?? No, like, it couldn’t happen, right? Right?? Chance of winning - 6% (+2% from last episode)

Mike - Mike had a weird episode. His first episode gave him a lot, and I mean a lot of content and stuff about him. We still got a solid chunk of it, and we did get some extra humor (and somehow more mentions of his abs??), but it did feel a little underwhelming. I was hoping we’d get some more strategy there because I think that would help confirm his extra longevity in the game, but I came out of this feeling most of the same way as last time. I hate that idea that Mike’s personality was mostly used on episode 1, so I hope next week we get some good content from him, but his lower episode isn’t the worst. His tribe generally was pretty quiet, so as long as his content shifts positively when he starts having to actually do more, I’ll keep his odds up higher. Chance of winning - 7% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Main Contenders

(8% to 14% chance of winning)

Jonathan - Every episode I’m more intrigued by where this season is going to end up going for him. He is pretty much by far the most developed person on his tribe, and I know people are mentioning while he gets content in may not be the most deep, but I think it actually is. He regularly checks in on his theme of the season and shows us how he is trying to make his perception that of the surfer bro while deepening his connections and managing his emotions. He hasn’t gone to tribal and we know him significantly more than a lot of other people who have had someone leave their group. I see high upside for Mr. Jonathan. Chance of winning - 8% (+2% from last episode)

Colby - Last episode Colby was shining, he had such a good episode, and this one was definitely a bit quieter. I think a cooldown episode from him isn’t an awful thing, especially because his tribe didn’t get the most content ever. That being said, what he did get was discussing strategy in the game, and I do like this when compared to his storyline, which is about growing and adapting to this new age of the game. Was this the best episode? No, not really, but it wasn’t an episode that made me grimace and think his chances were sunk. Overall, I would say this episode was chill, and it did just enough for me to not change my opinion of him. Chance of winning - 9% (+/- 0% from last episode)

Genevieve - First off, how did Genevieve get so much more content on Kyle’s leaving than Kamilla, that’s wild. But man, her content is so good, like actually so good. She gets the opening confessional, which greatly relates to her theme this season of relating and becoming closer to people, she’s all over the ‘what happened last episode segment’, and she makes a strategy read. Is it the cleanest? No, because Aubry gets the advantage, but to me this doesn’t really feel like a bad bad sign for Gen. I think the audience is really being geared to like her, and it feels like her content is really solid. Could she be a pre-merger who gets put in a bad swap and her getting screwed is supposed to move the audience? Possibly, but the editors have put so much effort into trying to boost up her reputation that I can’t help but put her high up. Chance of winning - 12% (+2% from last episode)

Christian - This dude is either a dominant winner or meant to be the crowd favorite. He is so insanely likable it’s insane. His edit is just so good, they somehow make the um… unpleasant situation into something humorous and make us love him more. He is clearly presented as a reliable narrator and one who has his pulse on everything in his tribe. Will he win? I think there’s a solid chance, though it’s so hard knowing he has such a big reputation they would let him get far, but maybe he will! Either way, I’d be shocked to see him go home anytime soon, I think he just seems to be in such a good spot, and I predict he could be a swing vote in this next swap tribe. Chance of winning - 12% (+2% from last episode)

Rick - My winner pick from episode 1 continues here. It’s hard to doubt this edit right now. He is given so much content, I was nervous when he started going after Joe, one of the most likable people ever on Survivor, and somehow, someway, Joe was edited NEGATIVELY? That’s insanity, and it means the show wants us to agree with Rick that Joe makes the game less fun. He gets just of course the craziest foreshadowing of him using that advantage well, and he uses it to solidify his bond with Christian - which is a set-up theme for him during episode 1. There is nothing this episode that makes me doubt that I made a solid pick, and I think he has massive potential winner upside. Is Rick going to be our sole survivor? Chance of winning - 14% (+2% from last episode)

And that’s a wrap! What a fun episode, and I’m so ready for a swap, weirdly enough swaps also give SO much info on who has winner potential, because who gets content again is super vital info. I’m excited to see what’s in store, and if you like what I make, subscribe!

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KALO TRIBE

Charlie - First up, and honestly, one of the hardest to nail down, is Charlie. He is probably one of the least likely winners, having some funny content here and there, but otherwise being totally quiet on the strategy front. (Like seriously, Jonathan is shown as being way more strategic than Charlie.) While it’s a bad note, what could possibly cue some sort of shift is we have Charlie talk in a confessional about how he wants to cultivate these personal relationships and come off as goofy and unassuming, and then for him to actually find connections across the tribe. We see a Chrissy v Dee war looming, and if Kalo never goes to tribal, a good thing Charlie could be shown doing is cultivating strong relationships with both sides of the battle. Will it happen? Probablyyyy not, but we can hope!

Chrissy - Chrissy is a mixed bag, coming off as a bit scheme-y and going into Dee’s bad graces. There’s a few things that could happen which would be great for Chrissy. First, Dee getting voted out would be the best, especially if Chrissy is shown orchestrating it. (And it would be best if we see Jonathan slot into the role of Chrissy’s sidekick.) Another great thing would be if we see Chrissy in a bit more of a positive light. So far, we’ve seen her talking about being cutthroat and others painting her as a target, but from what I know Chrissy has an awesome story, and if we see that side of her in the upcoming episode or two, my odds of her winning would shoot up dramatically.

Coach - What a mixed bag of an episode for Coach. He was out front and in our faces, and was shown pretty positively, but also had such a weird interaction with Mike pointing out his reaction to getting caught in a little lie with his journey. Honestly, we don’t need - and actually we don’t want, a big episode for Coach. This episode would be better if he settles down and we get an episode where Coach is shown forming alliances and takes a bit of a back foot. It would be an added bonus if he gets to give some insight on the Dee vs Chrissy battle which seems to be looming.

Dee - Dee has set herself up to be a bit of a power player. Her first episode made it known she was a great former winner, and that she wanted to play boldly. If Dee wins, I have no doubt that she’s going to have a pretty dominant edit, so next episode should play into that. For Dee to have a great episode, we should see her keeping up the strategy and establishing a strong position. If she goes to tribal, we need to see her of course win the war and vote out Chrissy, but also we should see her coming out looking dominant. A lot of the benefit could even come from Chrissy/Jonathan/Coach/etc. having silly music playing when falling for Dee’s trap. (Also, just, more content. It was a bit lacking last week, let’s see more of Dee!)

Jonathan - Jonathan is someone who is absolutely a great pick for anyone right now for a potential winner, so this week Jonathan doesn’t truly need much. We’d love for him to consider growing further in cultivating relationships and being strategic to further his own themes he’s been building, but how that looks can be varied. He doesn’t need to be a huge presence, honestly even just a confessional or two would suffice. The big key is we don’t want a lot of negativity there, because that would be pretty against the story he’s setting up for right now.

Kamilla - Definitely one person who is in a troubling spot edit wise, but they at least set something up for her story wise. What is most important is we see her rise as an important member of the Dee/Kamilla/Tiffany alliance and those 3 actually do what Kamilla said in episode 1, which is to play hard and be a bit villainous. However, we want that to be done in a way that doesn’t look too cruel, because Survivor rarely awards people who act mean-spirited. What Kamilla could use is a bigger episode confessional wise that has more strategic bearing. (oh, and also, please have her talk about Kyle’s absence. They were THE Kyle and Kamilla on 48, not addressing that would be awful for her.)

Mike - Mike had a huge episode last week, so similar to Jonathan, we don’t need much. I think the most important thing we see from him is actually solidifying an alliance and him talking about his place within it. Aside from that, adding in a scene or two of him being goofy reflects perfectly on how he said he wanted to play, so anything which can play into his own perception is a big plus for him.

Tiffany - Tiffany needs… kind of a lot. She needs to talk about Charlie, or show she’s a big player in her three person alliance. She needs to talk about her theme or how she wants her storyline to change this season, and she needs to break out of the mold of just being Kamilla and Dee’s alliance partner. Last episode she was probably one, if not, the most forgettable edit wise, which is sad because she is such a lively personality that I want to see her shine a bit more for there to be any weight put towards her being a winner.

VATU TRIBE

Angelina - I don’t think we really got a theme from Angelina, and it makes me sad to learn a negotiation on a reward between Jeff/Angelina was removed. It just feels like she is a secondary character in the story of this season, so we need that to shift. I want to see Angelina actually tell her story and share more about her position. I think a big question mark is where her relationships are, especially with players like Aubry and Rizo, so if we see an expansion there that could definitely improve her standing.

Aubry - Aubry did get some longevity last episode with her feud with Genevieve feeling like it was not going to be something that happened immediately (honestly my gut says Vatu may not go to tribal for a while, but I could definitely be wrong!). A lot of this is going to sound repeated from Angelina, and there’s a reason for it, because we saw some strategy talk from Aubry, but almost nothing on the personal end. We should root for the winner of this season, and the lack of personality from Aubry’s edit is a bad sign unless it gets turned around asap!

Colby - Colby was a huge player this past episode and received a lot of content, and so I do believe he’s got himself set up well as a potential contender. This ‘what we need’ segment for Colby is exactly the opposite, but what we don’t need. The big word here is negativity of any kind. I think players like Jonathan having some negativity sprinkled in isn’t awful, but this early in the game we really have seen Colby set up as a big hero, kind of an older dad-like figure, and so him being viewed negatively after such a positive start would feel really jarring, and that doesn’t scream potential winner to me. That is truly the only thing I am focused on for Colby this week.

Genevieve - Genevieve is a very interesting player because her storyline is definitely the one which is the most concrete but also most up for interpretation. Aside from her getting an invisible episode, I think any edit from this week can easily fit into her storyline. Genevieve has tensions forming relationships? Genevieve works to finding new friends? Genevieve is emotional after Kyle leaves and needs comfort from tribemates? All of these can easily fit into her story, and so I have almost no restrictions for her storyline this next episode (just don’t let it be zero confessionals!!).

Rizo - Rizo had a really solid episode last time, so this time I think a more calm episode is in store. I’m not expecting much, but a really stellar episode would probably include him being annoying / doing something ‘off’ and then getting coached by another player on how to improve and showing progress. This could easily also be a multi-episode arc as well, so I’m ok with seeing Rizo with some negativity if it pays off in the future. This is a pretty solid storyline Rizo set up in episode one, so anything that bounces off that idea of learning from the older players and growing from there is really positive.

Stephanie - One of the more surprising things after last episode was a lot of people I saw were very high, like top 5 or so high, on Stephanie. I think her episode was very solid, but I don’t know if I saw the strongest storyline being established by her. She had more confessionals, but I left the episode feeling like Colby was the bigger player in that pair. That being said, I would love for her to talk about her story a little bit more for me to feel better on her odds. I don’t think she needs a lot of content at all to be able to stay afloat, but I want to see what a lot of you saw when thinking she had winner potential.

Q - Q was a big player in episode 1, but a lot of it felt circumstantial. The big goal for this episode is for Q to just remain present in some way. A common thing is for less important characters of a story to get a lot of content at the start of the season when they have things which necessitate their narration (ex. a journey), but the second they have the opportunity to talk about something not necessary (ex. where they feel they are socially), they disappear. We don’t want that from Q. He could have a relatively quieter presence and still have a good episode.

CILA TRIBE

Christian - Christian had a phenomenal episode with a lot of heartfelt moments and strategy. It was big, it was punchy, and it screams contender. But. We also don’t want his edit to over bloom. A common problem I see is people will look at whoever talked the most in an episode and label them as the person who has a really good shot at winning, and for halfway through the game that is an ok metric to look at, but having the most confessionals on the first episode is often a death knell. Luckily, Christian didn’t have that, but he was a big player. A cooldown episode (one in which they get a UTR / MOR after having a really high visibility episode) is ok, and I think as long as Christian doesn’t randomly get extremely negative content, he should be good!

Cirie - Cirie needs one of two storylines. A) The redemption story, where she comes in after knowing she’s in trouble and goes scorched earth wreaking havoc, casting negativity on the main alliance, and using her charm to sneak her way through and finding a more dominant position. B) The underdog story, where she recognizes she’s in trouble, realizes her mistakes, and identifies that she’s in a bad spot and works to make progress on surviving. Her addressing her spot, identifying how she’s going to work to better it, doing that, and then surviving a vote is a good sign. The problem is the alliance she’s against was shown as so positive that it’s going to take a lot to make us now root against them.

Emily - I would love to see Emily stay consistent within her own storyline. She mentioned the social game and how she wants to improve (and how she already has), but I would like to see that expand even more. An extra highlight on her bonding with the likes of Joe, Cirie, or Savannah would be great to help cue that growth, but I don’t need an incredibly deep episode to keep her higher on the list.

Joe - I’d love to see Joe have more strategic content, as it seems he has identified that is his weak spot and where he lost last time. I think it would be cool to watch him talk about Kyle and how his departure can signify a new turning point in his game where he can let loose, and I’d like to see him start putting in roots. That doesn’t mean he has to flip a vote or do something crazy, but if we can understand where his head is at, that would at least show he’s worth investing.

Ozzy - Ozzy unfortunately is a victim of the ‘I got the most confessionals episode 1’, which since I’ve been watching survivor live (season 44) that player has always been out sometime between the middle of pre-merge and the second merge boot. What can he do to shape up? Well - maybe he is just an extremely dominant winner and Survivor wants to give him a lot of content as a bit of a celebration, so keep that up! I actually think less content would be a bad thing, especially with how much trouble it seems like he may be in on this tribe. We need a good amount of Ozzy, and underdog Ozzy to be more specific, for me to feel good on his chances.

Rick - Unsurprisingly, I have not much to say on Rick, as he was my #1 contender for episode 1 (read the last blog post to learn more about it!). He has a great storyline set up about prioritizing relationships over advantages unlike his last season, so honestly best case scenario is that he finds an advantage and discusses how he will use it to better his social standing and actively puts that to use. That being said, finding advantages is hard, so as long as he isn’t invisible, he has a good chance of staying high on my rankings.

Savannah - The final cast member left, Savannah had a perplexing edit. She sets herself up well, gets some positive and negative tones, has a lot of solid content, but overall I can feel some tension in the way Savannah’s story goes. I don’t think there’s a lot she needs, but I want to see the next few episodes be more consistent with her edit. Instead of being bold and in your face, I want her to show herself finding friends and changing the perception others might have of her. It’s not the most groundbreaking thing, but she can’t cause chaos, or else I fear her time may come closer than we want!

So, two hours later, that’s all my thoughts typed out! I’m excited about episode 2, and I know a lot of us are wondering if there are going to be 1, 2, or even 3 eliminations. With 22 players, there’s going to be a lot of content to go through fast. The normal premiere episode is 2 hours with 18 players, so the face we have +4 players and 30 less minutes means that I think a lot will indeed be revealed on who Survivor wants to put focus on and who is going to fly way too far under the radar. See you in a few days when we go over episode 2’s edgic, and if you like what you read, subscribe! Thanks for reading!

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I don’t know about you all, but I am absolutely thrilled to see such a cool cast get together. This post will contain a number of things: Edgic, Confessional Counts, Contenders, and a huge reflection on the likelihood of each person winning. Take a look down, and if you like what’s posted, please subscribe at the bottom of this page!

EDGIC

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

A brand new season, and I am thrilled. We started with quite a bang, and I think we’ve got a lot of people who are potentially in the running to claim the title of Sole Survivor this season. The winner is probably going to be getting a great edit here - this is a celebration season! I doubt they will not have us rooting for the winner episode one, so my guess is that one of our big content givers this episode is going to be our winner. Let’s break down each person in order from least to most likely to win.

WINNER CHANCES

VERY UNLIKELY (1-2% chance of winning)

Tiffany - As probably the most surprising pick for this season, Tiffany had a lot of winning potential going into the season. Most returnee seasons have a lot of big threats, so these more under the radar players in terms of threat level tend to have a bit of a leg up. That is why this episode almost certainly spells the end for Tiffany. She needed a big episode to confirm her reputation and that she could be a deserving winner, but instead we get crickets. She feels a bit more of a supportive role to Dee and Kamilla, which is definitely not great for her winning chances. Will she go far? There’s potential! Will she win? I doubt it. Likelihood of winning: 1%

Kamilla - I think Kamilla has such an interesting edit this first episode, because she does get content, and her confessional about her alliance with Dee and Tiffany is great, but unfortunately that’s about all we get, and I wanted more from her to feel like she was going to have some extra longevity. The question is will her alliance, or Chrissy’s (well - if her alliance exists because their tribe didn’t get much development) win the war. My guess is that Kamilla’s will win the battle, but her torch will probably be getting snuffed. Likelihood of winning: 1%

Angelina - UGH. I was disappointed with the way Angelina was shown here. She got some content, but most of it was talking about others with very little directed at herself. Similarly, she apparently had a bargaining session with Jeff post immunity challenge, and the fact it wasn’t shown to me shows she’s less important to this story. Is Angelina going pre-merge? I hope not, I want to see her and all her awesome content, but I feel like this is a pretty bad sign. Likelihood of winning: 1%

Charlie - I think Charlie may have some bad blood with this season. Unfortunately for him, this was a rough first episode. He has a really, and I mean really, interesting redemption story. If he was going to win this season, I think he is shown talking about it this episode. However, he is minimally present, and for such a celebratory season, this doesn’t feel like a celebratory winner’s edit. Likelihood of winning: 1%

Aubry - Aubry continues the same type of worries I have about a lot of people below, which is that their content feels so ‘other’ focused and less on yourself and your own development. The one plus is her storyline which seems very set up with Genevieve, but I came out of that episode way more leaning towards Genevieve winning that battle. That being said, I wouldn’t totally rule out Aubry, this is the first person on the list I can honestly say I think has some minor potential to win. Likelihood of winning: 2%

Cirie - What a first episode for Cirie… and not in a good way. In a world where Cirie wins survivor 50, I think this episode would be framed as a social masterclass of outwitting Jenna, but instead we see the likes of Rick, Christian, and Emily deciding her fate. This was not the best look. Now - do we get content on her? Absolutely. Is there a chance she could win? Yes, though it would definitely be a bit of a wackier edit. Do I expect a win from her? Unfortunately, I think the Cirie curse is going to stick. Likelihood of winning: 2%

Ozzy - Ok… hang with me here. Ozzy got so much content, the most of everyone in fact. However, I don’t like the way he was edited. Most people I talked to came away from the challenge against Coach/Q as seeing Ozzy as a cry-baby, and he is shown as overconfident, while still being a potential vote out from Emily’s scheming. If this chart was one where we analyze main characters, he’d be high up, but this is specifically for who is going to win, and it feels like there is a very low chance that will occur. Likelihood of winning: 2%

Joe - Joe is such an interesting character this season. He’s present, and he actually has some solid talking points, but he just feels dramatically overshadowed here by the likes of Rick/Christian/Emily. I do have the perception he’s going to probably make merge, but I think his edit feels smaller than others on his tribe, which I think is not what a winner’s edit would look like this season. Likelihood of winning: 2%

Dee - The first of two winners (rip Kyle :( ) to be on this list, and Dee seems to be in a rough spot. She sets herself up a bit as a big threat, and to me this feels more like a pre-merge blindside than anything else. I think if she is the next two-time winner we would be getting a huge coronation edit. I think her dynamics and views would be way more seen. I don’t think her edit is purely bad, but I think adding in that context plus being on the more under edited tribe spells disaster. Likelihood of winning: 2%

MODERATE CHANCE (3-5% chance of winning)

Chrissy - Chrissy is one of the hardest for me to analyze. She has a presence, and she does indeed talk about how she wants to play, but there’s something in her edit where it feels like she’s going to be coming up short. I think there is a minor storyline of Chrissy vs. Dee, but I feel like this one is going to be wrapped up quicker rather than later. I think a lot of it just pertains to the idea that other people had very clearly much better episodes. Likelihood of winning: 3%

Q - Q’s content was… weirdly not chaotic? I was expecting fireworks, but instead we get a more calmed down version of him. What is going on? Q is definitely a big dividing point in my contenders list, where I actually think there is a very viable chance he could win. He got all the building blocks, but it feels like his content was more out of necessity than it was because the edit wanted to give him that much. That being said, Q feels like a person who could go far, the question is what his episode 2 looks like, because that could be a huge signal about his trajectory in the game. Likelihood of winning: 4%

Savannah - The second winner on this list, and I think if Savannah wins this was an alright episode for her. She gets a lot of content, and is clearly a big figure. I just also can’t escape the fact that I think she’s getting some negativity and people seem to be less trusting of her. I have a hard time negotiating all of these facts, and while I do think she’ll be a big character (and I think she may be the last winner standing), I think early to mid merge is the farthest she’ll be going. Likelihood of winning: 4%

Coach - A huge personality and I have a feeling we could be seeing a lot of him. That being said, I don’t think he wins. Mike had a segment specifically clowning on him, and while this could be a way to give Coach even more personality, I have my doubts. That being said, he clearly has a set-up storyline, which is way better than a lot of others. Could Coach win? A very, soft, small, possibly. Likelihood of winning: 4%

Stephanie - My biggest debate here is whether Stephanie always would get this sort of content. She’s a huge figure in Survivor, and so I’m left unsure. That being said, her content is phenomenal. She gets to build relationships and comments a lot on the tribe dynamics. However, the thing that holds me down the most is how her personal content is a bit on the lower side. I see a long trajectory for Steph, heck she could even make final tribal, but I think others above her have much stronger arguments for winning. Likelihood of winning: 5%

MAIN CONTENDERS (5 - 12% chance to win)

Extra thing to highlight, the reason so many of these guys are so high is because of one thing - they set themselves up for the future. These 8, at some point in time, are either getting positive feedback, are shown growing over the episode, or talks about a lesson they need or want to grow in to potentially win. I expect most of these people to make it far into the game or be the big pre-merge losses.

Emily - Emily, and the 7 after, are my main contenders to win. Emily sets herself up very well, talking about her past season and how she has grown since then, talking about how she’s setting herself up with real allies now. The reason she’s the lowest of the 8 is because her relationships seem the least fleshed out compared to her trio with Rick and Christian. That being said, I see the vision and can definitely see a shot at winning. Likelihood of winning: 5%

Jonathan - This was, by far, the biggest surprise for me this season. I expected Jonathan to be a bit of a meathead, shown as just the big physical guy, but he had really great depth. He talked about the last season and how he needs to grow to potentially win. And, you know what Jonathan, I think you could! The biggest thing holding him back is his tribe. It is definitely the most under edited, and I’m scared for the potential consequences of that. That being said, he’s clearly a main character of this tribe. Likelihood of winning: 6%

Rizo - R I Z G O D, Rizgod baby? Yeah, I don’t know about that completely, but he had such an interesting edit. I think he’s probably the one in the top 8 I am least sure of. He gets negativity, but it’s negated and turned into positivity by the end of the episode, and Rizo is shown talking about learning from the best and using it to do well. Honestly? He’s set himself up for a great season arc, but I just doubt he’s going to be able to make it to the end, though that’s more of a personal view than one guided by the edit. Likelihood of winning: 7%

Mike - Buff Mike was not on my bingo card for 2026, but we got him! Honestly, he’s such a tremendous character and he is getting absolutely milked for his content and celebrity status. He had a phenomenal confessional on how he needs to come across, and I fully believe he’s aiming for that. The question is, wouldn’t Survivor always give him a good edit since he is so well known? I don’t know, but from an objective stance this is a great look for Mike. Likelihood of winning: 7%

Colby - Alongside Jonathan, I was so pleasantly surprised by Colby. You can tell he’s coming across so, so much better than he did back in season 20. He’s viewed positively, is shown being strategic, and also has a hilarious moment with Genevieve that paints him as a funny, older guy without it feeling mean. If Colby wins this season, I can absolutely see this being the edit they would give him. Likelihood of winning: 9%

Genevieve - Genevieve. Probably the person I was most unsure of how they would do going into this season. She knows no one and is shown as a cutthroat strategist in 47. She comes out here very well. Her story and talking about personal versus game feels like a direct continuation of her storyline in 47, which is an incredibly good sign. I love the rivalry with Aubry, it sounds like a good way to gauge her longevity. The only hang up is that she was introduced pretty late into the episode. That being said, they had a lot of people to introduce, and I think she has an edit set up for success or at least being a big character this season. Likelihood of winning: 10%

Christian - I am so happy for him, and it was genuinely moving to see him start the fire and ponder his son watching that moment in the future. Christian is set up so well, is given so much positive content, and we seem to know exactly how he wants to play. Will he win? Not sure, but I feel like this episode sets him up to be a big character this season. Likelihood of winning: 10%

Rick - My number 1 after episode 1 is none other than Rick Devens. I am shocked. I thought for sure he wouldn’t make it out of the pre-merge, but he has phenomenal content. He discussed how he wants to prioritize relationship building over finding idols, and then proves it by putting himself in a perfect spot within his tribe. He is shown positively, and it’s clear the editors want us to love the Rick/Christian duo and Emily trio. He also wasn’t overly exposed, it was perfect in terms of the amount of content, we got him talking throughout the whole episode, and he was given great moments of humor. Is Rick our winner? Let’s find out. Likelihood of winning: 12%

Wow, did you make it all the way down? Thanks for reading, this took an insane amount of time to do, I don’t use AI to write any of this, so this is purely my own brain stream working in overdrive. Was I right? Was I horribly wrong? Feel free to comment your own thoughts! If you liked all of this above and want to see more, feel free to subscribe below so you don’t miss another post!

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CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

This season was entertaining, and I think despite many people having an idea Savannah was our winner, the editing team did a phenomenal job with creating doubt. When 49 released, we knew Savannah and Rizo would be on 50, and with 3 starting tribes, two of which had winners on them, there was heavy suspicion Savannah would round it out with 1 former winner per tribe. That being said, she was shown either in negative or mixed tones throughout the season, which is on the rarer side for winners. Coupling that with Sophi’s amazing content and foreshadowing of her turning on Savannah (which was actually the edit showing that her NOT turning was the reason she lost), it made it much more interesting to do Edgic for than anyone thought it would be.

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

This season was definitely one of the trickiest ones up until that moment for me. I had noticed Kyle’s presence, but until around episode 6, Kamilla was feeling way more of the important one in the Kyle/Kamilla duo, and unfortunately it took me until episode 12 to really shake that early season perception that because Kamilla felt more in focus, neither of that duo would win. Compound that with the effort they put into highlighting Eva’s story, she stood out way more throughout the merge as a likely winner. This season was definitely one where my emotions towards the season (I’ll admit - I found it slightly more on the boring side) clouded my judgement. However, I do think overall this was an interesting season Edgic wise and Kyle’s story became way more apparent on a rewatch.

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

This season of survivor was one of my favorites for the new era, especially because it tested me in who could win this season. A huge win for me was that my top 4 contenders in episode 1 ended up being the final 4, so I was ecstatic that my methods were working! However, I had a huge up and down view on Rachel’s game. She had a stellar episode 1, and then effectively was a middling quiet throughout the rest of the pre-merge. What I failed to recognize was that Rachel was on the bottom, yet they consistently gave her great confessionals and checked in on her way more than the average ‘not-in-the-core-group’ castaway, which should’ve hinted towards her importance. After a few merge votes she stood out and quickly landed at the #1 contender, but this showed that even if a person is not getting the most content about their successes, if they’re still being highlighted when normally a person in their position wouldn’t, it could be a sign of their longevity in the game.

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

This season was one of my favorites due to just the insane amount of chaos it presented. Kenzie was someone who became a consensus winner pick for many people about half way through the game, and I definitely agreed during that time. However, she had a big drop after episode 1 due to her having what I viewed as a negative episode 2, which winners are definitely less likely to have. However, aside from that, her edit always made a lot of sense. A big lesson I learned was about early episodes and how episode 1 is extremely important to how their season would play out, while throughout the pre-merge episodes some negativity is not a death knell to their winning chances.

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

This season was such a fun one to spectate, especially because I jumped onto the Dee train episode one! While generally people had her ranked on the higher end, not many people had her consistently at the top until later in the season. I was definitely blinded by Emily in the middle of the season, especially because of her amazing content, but Dee was always at the top because of her dominance in the strategy and social elements in the game. This season definitely was a great one to test out how to do Edgic, and it taught a valuable lesson about not hyper focusing on an episode by episode basis but looking at contenders holistically.

CONFESSIONAL COUNT

CONTENDERS

REFLECTION

Season 44, content wise, was hit or miss at times. For the most part, this season was a bit predictable with the Tika 3 of Carson, Carolyn, and Yam Yam getting so much content. However, Carson was given more of a strategy heavy edit which led me to believe they would be the ‘dragon’ of the season. Yam Yam as the winner was something which in hindsight feels way more likely than Carolyn, though since this was my first time doing Edgic, I feel as if I was definitely a bit more biased by my love for Carolyn’s character arc. That being said, this was a solid first season of Edgic despite me not fully grasping onto Yam Yam as the top winner contender until the end.

It’s a fun, exciting TV show, but you might struggle sometimes with figuring out who is winning. Don’t worry, I gotcha! Learn a bit more about Edgic below.

1. What is Edgic?

Edgic (Edit + Logic) is pretty simply a method people use to predict the winner of a Survivor season. This can include watching how contestants are portrayed, how storylines of the season work alongside each person, and analyzing the current game state and possibilities for who can win.

2. How does one do Edgic?

I use Google Sheets, it’s pretty efficient, and I would recommend checking out the other posts for examples of how it progresses over time, but below is an example of a complete survivor season using edgic [Spoilers for Season 44 of Survivor below].

3. Ok, so what do all of these letters mean?

Let’s break it down!

On the left hand side you’ll see a number of letters (a purple T, a green S, a red V, etc), which all represent tribes that the castaways were a part of, for example Helen was only a member of Tika. The places of each castaway is on the right of their name (Yam Yam = 1st, Heidi = 2nd, etc.).

Unfortunately that’s the end of the easiest part, let’s break down the trickier parts.

Editing Types

Each episode, someone doing edgic will watch each castaway and give them an edit type. Each type is composed of three different things, content, perception, and visibility.

Content

When you watch someone like Carolyn play in season 44, by the end of most episodes you might be saying… “This lady is such a ball of chaos.” Or, when watching Kane in season 44, you may say at the end of each episode, “What did he do again?”

Survivor has a story in mind and they tell it through the content which is shown. Obviously each contestant is sharing their stories, but only some will get highlighted, and each thing that is shown on screen will in some way influence the viewers’ perceptions. This is typically done through confessionals, which is when a contestant speaks directly to the camera. As such, typically every episode Survivor will give each castaway a certain amount of screen time and content, which has been broken down into 5 categories:

Invisible (INV): This person is mostly fully gone from the episode. This will mean 0 confessionals and usually rarely even being mentioned. Their relevance in the episode is extremely low.

Under-The-Radar (UTR): This person is someone who plays a minor role in the episode, and it usually means they will have a lower confessional count (approximately 1-2), and will talk more about others than themselves.

Middle of the Road (MOR): This person is someone who plays a moderate role in the episode. Their confessional count can range wildly, usually anywhere from 2 to 5, and the content they get can be about themselves, though it tends to not be too personal or strategic.

Complex Personality (CP): This person is someone who plays a significant role in the episode. Their confessional count can range wildly, though usually it’s at least 3. The content they get is usually a bit of both strong strategy and personal thoughts. When you leave an episode and think, “I really have a strong grasp on who they are and what they are doing,” it’s usually a good signal they are CP in terms of content.

Over the Top (OTT): This person is very much a wildcard. Their confessional count can be all over the place, and the central tenet of an OTT episode for a player is they are very dramatic, confident, or seem one-note. One-note isn’t necessarily bad, it just means the content is very focused on one part of their identity to such an extent that everything else about them becomes irrelevant. These people tend to be big heroes, villains, or just generally chaotic castaways because of the energy they bring to the screen.

Take a look at the image below, and you can see a small snapshot here. On episode 1, I gave Yam Yam and Carolyn OTTs for their wild personalities, Heidi a UTR for being a quiet presence, Carson a CP for being very strategic and personal, and Lauren a MOR for being a talkative presence but not being an overly main character of the episode.

That was a lot, but that was the most complex one! The next two are a lot more simple.

Looking at the image above, you will see OTTP4, UTRP1, CPN4, but we only talked about the first bits of each of those, namely the OTT/UTR/CP, so what is the P4/P1/N4? And why does the MOR3 not have an extra letter there?

Tone

This one is really simple! At the end of every episode, we will give everyone a tone ranking. This simply means did the episode portray this character as a heroic or villainous player. This does not mean just that someone said, “We should work with XYZ / We should vote out XYZ,” but that the content explicitly shows us moments in which someone is shown in an OVERLY positive or negative light.

If the episode goes out of their way to show people talking about how nice/heroic someone is or focus on their great characteristics, they get a Positive (P) tone added to the end of their content score.

If the episode goes out of their way to show people talking about how annoying/villainous someone is or focus on their.. well… not so great characteristics, they get a Negative (N) tone added to the end of their content score.

If someone manages to get both good and bad characteristics highlighted, they will get a Mixed (M) tone added to the end.

If someone does something EXTREMELY heroic or villainous, they can get a Very Positive (PP) or Very Negative (NN) tone added to the end. This tends to be extremely rare and occurs when something very drastic or profound occurs.

Finally, if the show doesn’t show much of any tone, and the person is just shown as present, or strategic, without really highlighting it as purely ‘good/heroic’ or ‘bad/villainous’, they will not get any tone added to the end.

Looking back on this image here, you can now understand a few things! In episode one, Yam Yam was a chaotic, or over the top player that was shown as being really fun/heroic/nice. Carolyn was similarly chaotic, but unlike Yam Yam was shown as being heroic and villainous to such an extent that she was given a mixed tone. Carson was shown as a very strategic and strong player, but also one who had a slight villainous tone. Lauren, on the other hand, was a steady presence, but wasn’t really shown as necessarily heroic or villainous.

Note: Most players probably won’t get a tone. A good rule of thumb is after an episode to think about how you feel about the players. Do you think they’re a hero after that? A villain? Or are they just a smart player, or one that was a potential vote?

Finally…

Visibility

This is the easiest one! Every player will receive a visibility score from 1 - 5.

1: They were nearly fully absent from the episode besides maybe one or two small moments.

2: They had a small presence in the episode, but were way more of a secondary figure.

3: They had a moderate presence in the episode, usually getting some content, but they weren’t the focus of attention.

4: They had a large presence in the episode, generally getting a lot of content and being part of a lot of the main attention during the episode.

5: They dominated the presence of the episode, the episode generally revolved a lot around them and we heard from them a lot.

Note: 1s are usually pretty rare. 2-3s are probably the most common, usually about 60% of the cast is this every episode. 4-5s are relatively common, being about 40% of the cast every episode.

OK. YOU DID IT!

I know that was a lot, but let’s do one last recap.

Looking at this now, you can tell that Yam Yam was a chaotic player (OTT), who was shown in a positive/heroic way (P), and was shown a lot during the episode (4). Lauren was a steady presence (MOR), who wasn’t necessarily shown positively or negatively (no tone), and was a solid presence but not a main character of the episode (3).

I hope this is starting to make more sense, but don’t worry if you’re still trying to work it out, it took me some time as well. Keep trying and eventually it’ll be super easy to understand.

Contenders

We made it past the individual rankings, but now to the final section of edgic, the contenders list! Usually at the bottom of the edgic chart, the maker will predict the most likely people to win the season. Usually it’ll be the top 4 most likely until about a 1/3 of the way through the game, and then it’ll be top 3 until the final 8 or so (though you can do however many you’d like)!

The question is… how do you choose?

What makes a winner?

This is, unfortunately, not an easy question to answer. But let’s try our best. Typically, the winner of the season will have a few characteristics.

1. They will be a steady presence throughout the show. They’ll most likely have more MORs, CPs, and OTTs than the average player.

2. They will almost never have an INV episode. A winner has not had one in nearly 10 seasons.

3. They are shown in positive or mixed tones at least a few times. Usually the show wants us to like the winner!

4. They tend to have some tie in to the theme of the season. Usually on episode 1, when Jeff gathers contestants on the beach, he will give a LONG spiel with a ton of content. After the season, production will choose a small segment of this to air, and usually it is directly tied to an important part of the season. (Ex. If Jeff talks about placing trust and finding one person to trust and how important that bond can be, if a player is shown talking about that theme, it may be a good sign they are relevant for the rest of the season.)

While I wish I could give you a checklist, this is only some basic ideas, and Survivor loves to throw a curveball at us every once in a while, so don’t think that a winner will ALWAYS follow these rules. However, this has become a relatively repeating pattern, especially over the last couple of years.

To Conclude

Edgic is not a science. It is purely fun, so don’t take it too seriously! Pull up that Excel or Google Sheet and try it out!

This substack is all for fun, and I’ll be uploading every week my thoughts on new Survivor episodes, so follow along to hear my thoughts, and I’d love to know yours as well.

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